The Bewilderness

Monetize the crowd

Where does the conversation lead? What does the Cluetrain Manifesto look like these days? The answer is profit paradise for the chosen few and a graveyard of failed business models for the many. In the days when we are beginning to see another bubble in net companies, what do reviews of successes and failures tell us.

Probably that the Holy Grail remains difficult to grasp. Three simple words "monetize the crowd!" can be extraordinarily difficult to achieve. Attaining a critical mass for a participatory network is an Everest; making money from it, even harder work. The article in Strategy and Business outlines some commonalities, but cannot really explain profitable success beyond the "wisdom of crowds". Voluntary participation as a collective enterprise is necessary but not sufficient; and the leverage required depends upon the market niche.

You may wish to monetize the crowd, but that depends upon parting an individual from their cash. The first is yet one more technique to achieve the second. 

Turning the lights on dark networks

An interesting correlation between the Deep Web (also known as the Dark Web) and the "unlit social graph". The author draws parallels between Google's need  to dive beneath the surface of the world wide web to map ringfenced sources of information with Facebook's current dilemma that the majority of networks remain beyond its grasp. Truly, this unlit graphic is only available through mobiles rather than the desk. 

Quite staggering is the size of the dark web to the surface web: an estimate in 2008 was 400% of that which is searchable. The size and depth of this subterranean empire remains opaque. Add in language and culture: suddenly the Surface Web of the West may become a very small place.

Now the attention is turning to dark networks.

More 2011 predictions on mobile city

The most successful apps in Iphone, Ipad and Android shared some commonalities in 2010: ease of use (a must on mobile phones); a springboard for social networking and shared communities with add-ons, such as locations; and based upon the working strategy of free at the point of use, paid for by a bigger brother down the line or advertising.

The apps for this year promise more social interconnections, spreading television to the mobiel world. Yet, payment systems are unmentioned: an omission that could prove a radical reorientation for the mobile world from leftfield, allying retail to the smartphone.

Another forecast from a company perspective appeared on Mashable.

Self-appointed guides to the noise

How has the world of blogging changed since I started so many years ago on Airstrip One? Well, I still toil in obscurity. Not that I mind.

The early adopters, primed by the rise of terrorism and war, perhaps minded to discuss law and sciences, have been superseded by a whole ecology of content. Indeed, blogging is embedded in a whole set of channels for advertising self-generated content to your networks: Twitter, Facebook and so on. What you know complements who you know.

Jean Aw of Notcot sets out a hierarchy of content from the lowly hobbyist to the grand content kings of AOL and Yahoo. Between the amateur and the giants lie intermediary websites, semipro businesses that meet the need for curation in content. Some of these intermediaries are dubbed Lifestyle Bloggers:

The rise of the Lifestyle Blog doesn't mean that other blogs will disappear. It's just a growing and increasingly relevant part of the ecosystem. This crude breakdown is to illustrate the differences between Lifestyle Blogs and other blog businesses. It’s not a job. It’s a lifestyle. It’s something that evolves in parallel to living fulfilling, exciting lives. It’s a means to share a perspective on life. Not news. Not covering every topic. It’s a curated view of the world that readers can fall in love with and live through. It’s about passion, aspiration and inspiration.

 

Within communities, certain individuals will naturally acquire a wider following. They become minor celebrities: fulfilling the role of leaders and mentors. The overarching need is for regular readers or fans of their lifestyle.

Curation is a natural role for the gatekeeper: self-appointed guides to the noise. But can this role turn a dime?

Ubiquitous mobility

Last year was the year of early adopters for computing ubiquity on a mobile basis. The advent of the smartphone hit the knee of the curve as a beneficial confluence of price and accessibility drove the market. Whatever innovations are seen this year will step within the existing ecology of dominant operating systems like Android, the developing ecology of apps and attempts to drive location services and payment systems.

Perhaps 2011 will be the year that embeds mobile computing, especially in the laggards of the West. The innovative advances of the poor will be used to our advantage.

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What does incremental innovation hold for the phone?

IBM's predictions for the forthcoming year are not very surprising. The company highlights five developments which will provide incremental comforts on a three to five year timescale. These trends are not earth-shattering but they do shine a light on what we can expect. And the trends of significance are developing more efficient batteries for mobile devices; allowing mobile data to provide new services or information maps, and; greater personalisation. Nothing new, but IBM gives some idea of what may come. 

A slow take-up for quick response codes

Another understated innovation of 2010  is the QR (Quick Response) code, linking mobile phones and existing logistics chains. It is the invasion of just-in-time to retail and consumers. The history of the QR code is one of catch-up, not creativity. QR codes have been used in Japan since 1994 and are now being utilised in the West.

As with all black boxe, adoption is driven by a purposeful agency:

One Japanese innovation already beginning to enjoy widespread use in overseas markets such as Europe and the US is the QR, or “quick response”, code – a matrix barcode that can give users with a mobile phone or similar device access to information ranging from a restaurant access map to an airline check-in number.

Invented in 1994 by Denso, a Toyota affiliate, and now ubiquitous in Japan, QR codes are being adopted more widely overseas in part due to the efforts of SET, a Tokyo-based but internationally-managed advertising and communications agency.

This adoption only took sixteen years: not all innovation happens in the now. One wonders what other tools from mobile saturated cultures will find their way to our shores.

Click as you like

Was the Facebook Open Graph product the most important development in social networking in 2010. The innovation certainly has a claim to fame in this respect. OpenGraph was announced at F8, the most recent Facebook conference for dealing with developments. Its objective was to link the web, walled gardens and any damn think that any Facebook member could potentially like (within legal constraints).

"The Web is at a really important turning point right now," Zuckerberg said. "Up until recently, the default on the Web has been that most things aren't social and most things don't use your real identity." Facebook, now, is forging its way across the Web and staking a claim to its infrastructure. Zuckerberg called the demonstrations at F8 "a taste of the future where everything can be more personalized." And, it seems, one where Facebook is the center of it all.

We have seen these alliances springing up, so that one may now get Facebook updates on Skype, Yahoo and Msn. For Zuckerberg, the underlying protocol for thsi real-time stream across all websites is the use of the Like button. Simple to use, an innocuous and incremental link that potentially deepens the ties between friends on Facebook.

However, the Facebook woodpile includes multiple jurisdictions involving privacy laws and data protection. 2010 was the year of the open graph, 2011 will be the year of signing up to share so Zuckerberg can avoid going to Jailbook.  

Augmenting reality depends upon the network

Augmented reality is a stepping stone on the road to ubiquitous computing and the instrumental environment. But getting from here to there conveys some insights on the uptake and adoption of technology. Augmented reality is the overlay of digital information on perceived reality and bootstraps in social acceptance on networks like Facebook and peer to peer groupings.

The devices for augmented reality are not that important in the short term. They rely upon the smart phone, though it was originally assumed that such data would be made availabel through head up displays (i.e. digitised glasses). This will be a cool fashion accessory. The timeline given for the take-up of augmented reality is three to five years, assuming that adopters find an unrealised need.

“It comes down to ease of use. People don't want to use technology, they want what it enables. We don't want a mobile phone, we want a conversation; we don't want AR apps, we want the information it provides.”

Early geographical games and networks have come into play. How far are they precursors of this enriched, networked world? I suspect that the lack of a hardware requirement could rapidly disseminate augmented reality once the app and the needs converge. A paradigm shift in the way we view the world.

Moore's law marches for a while yet

I decided to eavesdrop on Moore's Law and check that the doubling had not eased, halted or reversed; the potential scenario for any law. Well, some people are drooling over the latest chips, and x-core processors. Extreme ultraviolet lithography is viewed as the best short-term bet for continuing the trend. And if this continues:

Then we could be carrying round teraflops by the end of the decade on our mobiles. The world would be at our fingertips .