Confidence is an intangible quality that acquires a value during times of economic crisis. The value is not quantifiable, but there is a wide acceptance that losses or gains in this quality may have a bearing upon the outcome of any recession. Talk an economy down and confidence will wane; talk an economy up and confidence will return.
Where does this intersect with the world of politicians? Naturally, economic and electoral cycles will coincide. Incumbents have an interest in raising the value of confidence as they wish to retain power and ensure that they are rewarded for prosperity. Opposition politicians prefer to note a realistic perspective on the economy, downplaying any significance that the quality of confidence may have in individual behaviour. Confidence becomes a tool in the armoury of the government spin, a virtue to tie their economic record, their role as the country's protector and the lever by which they may ensure re-election. Thus Vera Baird, Solicitor-General:
Miss Baird said: "One is reasonably confident that there will, before
very long, be green shoots."
She added that the economic situation in the Britain was not "anything
like as bad" as that in some of the other leading industrialised
countries in the G7".
And on the opposition corner of the ring, George Osborne:
George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, said: "On a day when unemployment broke through the two million barrier and the IMF predicted the UK will have the longest recession of any major economy, the minister's words beggar belief.
"This is yet another reason why Labour cannot get us out of this crisis - they won't even face up to the reality of it."
Confidence may prove an insightful prism through which to monitor political statements. Does the quality deserve its privileges, as a politicised peer of the economic realm? The value is derived from a vulgar Keynesian view of the world and its role at the centre of the politicised economy has strong consequences. The link to bail-outs and the role of public spending as a method for maintaining demand is taken in the hope of kickstarting growth again on the previous model of debt, now socialised. The other economic quality that has an unquantifiable value is trust between party and counterparty.
I suspect that the focus upon confidence at the expense of trust is an epic fail.