The Bewilderness

The approaching Juncker moment

Cameron appointed Lord Hill as his Commissioner prospective, a pro-European Tory and a former special adviser to Kenneth Clarke. After the isolation, the Prime Minister may have viewed this appointment as an ameliorative measure. It cut no ice with the head of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz. Forgetting the limits of his constitutional power under the treaty, Schulz thundered that Hill would never become a Commissioner because he was a Eurosceptic Tory. Having only the power to vote down the entire set of Commissioners, Schulz soon sulked and backtracked muttering that gender balance was more important. Yet, for Britain, an important moment, reinforcing the Juncker moment. The visceral dislike and instant assumption of British Euroscepticism as an ideological taboo for EU positions means that negotiation for reform is unlikely to happen.

Now, Juncker is seeding the press with further comments on the British position and possibly preparing to render Lord Hill a non-entity. The choice of portfolio marks a clear sign of European perceptions in regard to the position of the UK in Europe. A minor portfolio suggests that Brexit is considered a positive option and there will be no compromise on a halfway house. A decent portfolio marks a negotiating concession. And if Britain doesn't leave, we are then sidelined as a walkover: this is known as the Miliband option and is the preferred future of the supine Liberal Democrats (the party without a backbone so they can U-turn as fast as possible).   

All to play for in 2015

The Labour party have not maintained the lead in the polls that they commanded during the years of declining living standards. The parallels with the balance sheet recovery of 1992 are clear. During that election, Labour were also unable to persuade enough voters that they deserved their trust on matters of economic competence. As the recovery has accelerated and living standards have commenced an upward trend, the Conservative party enjoys a tepid recovery in the polls.

This polling trend is, in some ways, indifferent to the European election results or potential upsets in Newark. Since the underlying compass for voters is the economy, psephological upsets magnified by the Westminster bubble are far less influential that real asset bubbles elsewhere. For the Tories, their real risks lie offshore: in China, Europe and the United States. 

Yet, with the economy as ballast, a recovery hits the oddities of the British electoral system. Left-wing Liberal Democrats have tactically defected to Labour in part; anti-Tory distaste trumping devotion to the protest vote. And the protest vote has turned to UKIP: disillusioned with a party now in government. 

The range of outcomes is wide open and complicated by the potential results of the Scottish referendum. That, rather than the European elections, could prove the earthquake that cracks open English politics.

I want to make my mark on the BreXit ballot

The Liberal Democrats promised, once upon a time, in their manifesto that the British electorate should hold an In-Out referendum on EU membership. Soon after, they reneged on this promise. Their reasons for this change have never held water. Their unprincipled nature is clear. Every policy adopted is clothed in sanctimonious and hypocritical language though it is designed for naked advantage. This extends from House of Lords reform to the proportional representation vote.

It is an unedifying sight to watch unelected Lords, put their through the patronage of their parties, conspire to remove the right of the British public to vote on the most important relationship in this polity. Their actions show that they do not trust us and that is reflected straight back at these apparatchiks. 

For an issue of such importance, and as an opportunity which Labour and the Liberal Democrats loathe, the Tory government should use the Parliament Act to force through this democratic measure. We deserve no less. 

Help to buy your vote

I hate to find myself agreeing with the sentiments aired by Cable. However, his grasp of policy does place him on the same side as other cautious critics of the coalition's policies. Tinkering with access to credit could stimulate an artificial rise in property prices unreflective of actual demand in the economy. Not that Cable is averse to tinkering in his own way. 

Without interest rate policy, governments have to rely on other methods to pump up a boom in time for the election. It is an irony that Brown did abolish boom by fostering an eternal bust. Now Osborne has reinvented boom and bust: boomtime for your vote and bust a year later, or midterm as the scheme runs out in 2017.

Which wag will call this the 'Help to Buy Your Vote' scheme.

A branch is hacked off our tree of liberty tonight

The Independent, in its leader, tries to maintain a moral high ground in welcoming political intrusion (defined as external influence and regulation) by distinguishing between itself and the popular press. The distinction lies between those who provide information at a profit and those who don't. Such organs, who believe free speech is best curbed by rules and regulations, welcomed the Hacked Off campaign and want the right people to be able to gag the Sun.

Our politicians have gagged the press at the behest of celebrities; when the victims of NHS maltreatment or medical cover-ups warned that the new rules could destroy investigative journalism.

Freddie Astbury, president of Thalidomide UK and a victim of the side-effects of the morning sickness drug, said: “With thalidomide we learned the lesson that it’s very important to have a free press.

“If the Lib Dems and Labour introduce a law making it harder to investigate things like this they will be protecting the likes of pharmaceutical companies and not protecting the victims"

The voices of victims will find it much harder to reach the public from tonight just so left-wing politicians can spare their own blushes and that of their pet celebrities. Scum is a useful collective for those who have destroyed Britain's freedom of speech.  

Liberal Democrats to be renamed in more truthful light: Sleazebags

The Liberal Democrats support statutory press regulation since news of such alleged behaviour as graced our rumbustious media in the last few days could probably be covered up. Alas, the cat was let out of the bag too soon!

If this has taken place in America, the whole debate would be framed in the partisan finger pointing of supposed liberal hypocrisy (possibly appropriate since they are the Liberal Democrats). 

But here, where all parties are liberal by US standards, the hypocrisy stems from their ability to shoot first with holier-than-thou bullets trading on an erroneous public reputation that they have highre standards of public behaviour than the other main political parties. Tuition fees, Huhne and now this....

sleazier than all the rest! 

All politicians are scum

The record of the Coalition government and contemporary politics. A minority partner called the Liberal Democrats. They vote for illiberal measures and decided that non-equalised constituencies stand; a squalid organisation placing petty imagined slights above social justice. It is neither liberal nor democratic to retain an unequal system of representation.

A majority party called the Conservatives. The only conserve they have stuck to is the jammy bind we find ourselves in. They forget that Labour policies don't really work. So we seem to be at the Heath stage of the crisis here. And as for Labour: the party of the non-working classes; either public sector or benefits.

A whole swathe of mediocrity: spending our money and impoverishing us by majority rule. 

The appearance of cuts....

George Osborne was buoyed along by reprising the reheated rhetoric of 2010 calling for further cuts in spending and no new taxes. Apart from one gimmick, the speech was light and lean, reflected the paucity of ideas at the heart of this administration. By invoking the prospect of further benefits cuts (their only popular policy?), Osborne flew into Liberal Democrat flak: the one political party that eschews popular coalition policies for their own idea of what people want (think Left!). Clegg was quick to chew his fat: cuts for taxes, rich for poor, mansion tax for reducing welfare.

However, in happier news, the OECD leading indicators appeared to show Britain decoupling from Europe and enjoying economic growth whilst the Eurozone plunged....

Accounting for Scotland in a new settlement

David Cameron has decided that, in the event of Scotland voting against independence, a new constitutional convention will be established to examine the instabilities (and injustices) that affect the current structure. Any political party that does not derive partisan advantage from the current set-up would recognise that 'bilateral devolution' is limited and would wish to rebalance the powers of devolved assemblies and Westminster.

Johann Lamont, the Scottish Labour leader, told the MPs devolution is not a “human shield against nationalism” and a further transfer of powers should be considered completely separately from Scotland remaining part of the UK

The Telegraph reports that the convention is being established against the backdrop of the SNP devolved government. Its aims are to define a unitary state and what can be undertaken by national or provincial administrations and municipal authorities. An attempt to deal with the West Lothian question will also be undertaken.

One concern is that Cameron prefers the convention to acquire a permanent existence: acting as an arbiter for the Constitution. That should reside with the law courts, a proper Supreme Court for the entire land. It marks a further step towards the adoption of Montesquieu, the world following the book. 

 

Let's talk it out..

Good news for the government; they won the vote on the bill to gerrymander (a new Liberal Democratic term) the House of Lords. Bad news for Clegg is the Tories threw out timetabling restrictions. 

Let's wheel on the grannies to talk this one to death.