The Bewilderness

All to play for in 2015

The Labour party have not maintained the lead in the polls that they commanded during the years of declining living standards. The parallels with the balance sheet recovery of 1992 are clear. During that election, Labour were also unable to persuade enough voters that they deserved their trust on matters of economic competence. As the recovery has accelerated and living standards have commenced an upward trend, the Conservative party enjoys a tepid recovery in the polls.

This polling trend is, in some ways, indifferent to the European election results or potential upsets in Newark. Since the underlying compass for voters is the economy, psephological upsets magnified by the Westminster bubble are far less influential that real asset bubbles elsewhere. For the Tories, their real risks lie offshore: in China, Europe and the United States. 

Yet, with the economy as ballast, a recovery hits the oddities of the British electoral system. Left-wing Liberal Democrats have tactically defected to Labour in part; anti-Tory distaste trumping devotion to the protest vote. And the protest vote has turned to UKIP: disillusioned with a party now in government. 

The range of outcomes is wide open and complicated by the potential results of the Scottish referendum. That, rather than the European elections, could prove the earthquake that cracks open English politics.

A test of memory

Euractiv has an article on the proposed commemorations of the Great War within Europe. Noting that a shared history is one of the foundations for a demos, the European Commission's unwillingness to participate in these events proves a notable failure for the Project. However, it is politically astute.

The British commemorations will focus on memory and loss, the defining themes of the war for thirty years as the last of the few have passed away. If there is an ebbing tide of the 'just war' and the 'right thing to do', this will not ne questioned deeply under the current coalition. Euractive misdescribes this as a focus on victory. The French reaction is similar. For both countries, the conflict is bound up with notions of cultural identity and how communities were tested or split asunder.

For Germany, Austria and Italy, the war is almost forgotten. Some view the emphasis on the conflict in the West as a form of victors' justice. Others cannot focus on the start of their tragedy since the prologue proved a miserable commencement to greater disasters. And in Russia, the centenary is viewed as a path for resurrection and a chance to draw upon Tsarist, not Communist, antecedents:

Vladimir Putin's Russia, meanwhile, has seized on the chance to fan national pride, reviving the memory of a war it says was unjustly forgotten under the Soviet regime -- which today's Russian rulers accuse of bowing shamefully to Germany in 1917.

How we recall the war depends upon national experience and the final disposition of the war. Those countries that lost and suffered revolutionary upheaval displaced their grieving and forgot their dead. But where losses were borne by stable democracies and without political change, there was a groundswell of remembrance and the names of the dead can still be discerned in lichened village sculpture under cross or sword. 

For the only lesson from the Great War that we still observe for our citizen soldiers is recited in the Ode of Remembrance:  "We shall remember them!" "Lest we forget!" 

Lingua Anglica in Europa

Eurostat have published the latest figures on the penetration of English as a foreign language throughout the European Union. Euractiv describes English as the new 'lingua franca' in a nod to its eighteenth century elitist predecessor. However, whereas French was the language of diplomacy and literature then; English is the language of business and science now. Its utility outweighs any competitors such as French, German, Spanish or Russian.

Almost astonishing is that English as a foreign language is now taught at primary level throughout almost every country. Outliers such as Hungary, Bulgaria or Portugal have their local reasons for not shifting in this direction, though the causes are not clear.

It is hard to see this dominance reversing any time soon even if, or especially if Britain leaves. Parallels with India may apply. Better an alien language that does not favour any particular country and protects the small ones.

Given the lunatics, I am sure that they will no doubt adopt Esperanto or Latin at some point.

 

Independence expectations north of the border

The vote for Scottish independence is a sleeping subject for the politicians at Westminster. With fourteen months till the referendum, there is little discussion of the vote or its implications in London. No doubt calculations are being made within circles gaming both the outcomes of "yes" and "no". Yet on this vote hinges the possibility of a majority Labour government.

Will Labour accede to inevitable demands that its Scottish MPs lose certain voting powers in the event of independence or further devolution? Can Miliband ignore the West Lothian question in the event of a No vote? There will be a huge clamour to raise the issue in 2014. It may even outdo Europe in the minds of recalcitrant Tories. The genuine and just outcome will be a form of federalisation.

The Guardian puffery on Alex Salmond written by an admiring Kevin McKenna focuses upon Salmond's capabilities of differentiating on the Left. The hero-worship of industrialism at the start, the demonisation of Toryism and the usual crap that Scottish national identity embodies the Grauniad's wihlist on social justice detracts from a single valid point. The independence referendum cannot single out grievances or oppression as a starter. Therefore, the campaign becomes akin to a general election campaign and will revolve, as Salmond notes, around expectations and opportunity.

I can only guffaw when I think about how an independent Scotland would dash the expectations of Guardianistas who expect a paradise of social justice that can become a beacon to the oppressed and beighted ignorant English. It would also dash the expectations of the Scottish themselves; and that will be a sadder story.

War poetry: recent conflicts

The poetry of the first world war is famous: commemorated and memorialised, often through the death of the authors. Who can forget that Isaac Rosenberg or Wilfred Owen never made it back; both dying in 1918 towards the end of the Great War. Their lasting legacy was a powerful set of poems celebrated by contemporaries and canonised. Yet far more popular remained poems of war, glory, duty, honour and pride at the time. Readers did not wish to fumble for reflection or cast their minds to froth corrupted lungs. Their imperial horizons were bound by Kipling.

Contemporary wars have also brought out poetry from all ranks. Its rawness and debt to preceding soldier poets is clear, but those untaught in literature who are moved to pen prove better at articulation than academics wedded to obscurantism. Experience clarifies. I am not sure that this poetry will stand for many years; and, gathers across all views: from those who view the wars as unjust to working class men angered by ranting crtics outside army recruitment offices:

For a middle class student, from here or a foreign state, 
to call a working class soldier scum, makes me more than irate. 
Your own rights of freedom are paid by us scum, 
who stand up against evil, in front of hells guns.    

There are a new generation of soldier poets writing in Iraq or Afghanistan who deserve to be read.

James Kelman embraces his Englishness

Our neighbours north of the border are tangling themselves up in knots trying to intellectualise positions that justify writing bad things about the English. Scotland is a colony and England (or Britain) is an Empire. James Kelman is the latest to trump the tartan and declare "I have nothing against the English, but..." Though, Kelman denies we are even a country: just a blind through which the puppet masters manipulate their real colony, Scotland. No doubt the Booker Prize that Kelman (or other non-English writers have won) is just a Machiavellian sense of misdirection.

Kelman argues that English critics just do not recognise the existence of a Scottish tradition, except in the most trite and insulting fashion. Yet, he also gets tired of being typecast as a Scot, or a Glaswegian or a representative of his country.

"Well, it's not supposed to be that at all," says Kelman. "Why would you think that? Why would you think that any Scottish writer has to represent Scottishness? Is Martin Amis supposed to represent Englishness? Or Ian McEwan?

"English writers make that criticism of me but they would never make that criticism of their own. It would never occur to them. When you say that to them they get a glazed look over their faces. They don't know what you're talking about.

James Kelman is moaning about his success as a famous writer from a small country. Moaning about your success is such an English trait that I have to say, Welcome Mr Kelman, you have fully embraced your Englishness! 

Brooke after Gallipoli

Finishing the memoir of Rupert Brooke today on the train to Petersfield, I was struck by a counterfactual. For three months, Brooke languidly took his artistic temperature in the cafes of Munich in 1911, adjudging the German character and drawing sketches of his fellow English as Forster wannabes. It was a poet with a view to exporting the Brookes club, sole membership: one.

The counterfactual would have been triggered by Brooke crossing paths with Adolf Hitler. But the times do not match as Hitler did not emigrate to Munich till 1913. It was motivated by the question of how Brooke may have matured if he had seen action and survived the war.

The question of patriotic poetry and his gauche early work are clear. The themes of satirical focus and sketches of what he saw and experienced would probably have replaced this naif hunger for action (in which he merely articulated the attitudes of his public school generation). Would he have even written about the sense of loss and bereavement for that 'lost generation', of which, in reality, he became a part? 

If Brooke had survived, it is difficult to plot his further career. Positioned between conservative patriotism and the socialism of his cohort, can we foresee Brooke as a reformed pacifist during the interwar period: the primary force in the 1945 Brooke government? His charisma certainly favoured a political role.  Or is he remembered as a minor academic at Sydney University, retreading old steps to the South Seas and tired of a country that held no further happiness for him? Or would he retire like Siegfried Sassoon: perhaps becoming a housemaster again at his beloved Rugby, some special plaque commemorating "Chips" Brooke and his influence over generations of schoolboys.

None of this happened and Brooke was buried on an Aegean isle, as the voice of that lost generation, his best unwritten poetry still before him. 

Desperately seeking subsidy

There is a lot of confusion over the status of Scotland if the vote for independence were to achieve its goal. Scottish nationalists argue that Scotland and what dismissively is referred to as 'the rest' would both have equal rights as successor states. This is certainly a new one for me. Secession equals two new states: not an existing United Kingdom and an independent Scotland.

Such semantics and screwball definitions are par for the Scottish nationalists; their desperation to get European subventions to replace ours is cringeworthy. Scotland without Europe will leave the subsidy junkies without a fix. Not that the English are much better in supping from Nanny's teat.

The House of Lards

The process of constitutional vandalism will be completed under this nominally conservative government. Whilst questions of democratic validity are left unanswered, Nick Clegg demonstrates his contempt for the 'ancient constitution' by comparing us with Belize (our former colony) and Jordan. And the cure: senators on 15 year terms, giving certain parties a potential stranglehold over process, elected by single transferable vote. 

Here is the quid pro quo that underlies the coalition: the secret deal which will have to be whipped through Parliament. Tories gain a more equal distribution of seats in the Commons and Liberal Democrats gain a modicum of influence through the Upper House. 

And how will this play out?

Mark Harper, the Cabinet Office minister, said it would be possible for the powers to change organically over time, and there was no need to set out those powers in legal form at this stage. He said a 15 year timetable has been set out for the reform, with peers elected for 15 year terms introduced in three tranches, so there was no need to rush into decisions on Lords powers.

An elected body will challenge Commons supremacy; will try to amend finance bills and will create a constitutional crisis. Imagine a left-wing Upper Chamber challenging the Commons...Clegg's reforms will feed parasitism, jobbery and partisan politics.

We should thank ourselves that he did not achieve his ultimate wet dream: bringing all MEPs back to Westminster as a second chamber...on second thoughts, UKIP would have stronger representation in London. 

Autopsy on the proto-flash riots

Returning to a singular disruptive and essentially short-term event, the London riots (with their hyped air of ungovernability), how far has this thuggery been blamed on social networking?Articles at the time viewed social networking tools as an accelerant for a social process. Riots have always occurred: but twitter and BBM allowed the rioters to focus, co-ordinate, choose targets and avoid authority. Secondly, the social networks reinforced group norms of validation in unique circumstances: how many times did we hear looters state that they were stealing because everyone else was doing so. Crimes were committed by a far wider range of individuals than expected. Such validation was also spread by more traditional networks: the media, phones, gangs and so on.

The courts have sent down 1,000 criminals for their part in the disturbances: they were mostly white and black, none were over 40 and the government's determination for tough sentencing has been met. Most were prosecuted for burglary, violent disorder and theft. A disturbing trend was the number of juveniles arrested and charged. 

Will we see further opportunistic flash riots in future years?