The Bewilderness

All to play for in 2015

The Labour party have not maintained the lead in the polls that they commanded during the years of declining living standards. The parallels with the balance sheet recovery of 1992 are clear. During that election, Labour were also unable to persuade enough voters that they deserved their trust on matters of economic competence. As the recovery has accelerated and living standards have commenced an upward trend, the Conservative party enjoys a tepid recovery in the polls.

This polling trend is, in some ways, indifferent to the European election results or potential upsets in Newark. Since the underlying compass for voters is the economy, psephological upsets magnified by the Westminster bubble are far less influential that real asset bubbles elsewhere. For the Tories, their real risks lie offshore: in China, Europe and the United States. 

Yet, with the economy as ballast, a recovery hits the oddities of the British electoral system. Left-wing Liberal Democrats have tactically defected to Labour in part; anti-Tory distaste trumping devotion to the protest vote. And the protest vote has turned to UKIP: disillusioned with a party now in government. 

The range of outcomes is wide open and complicated by the potential results of the Scottish referendum. That, rather than the European elections, could prove the earthquake that cracks open English politics.

Hail Gloriana

We see a long tradition of places named after monarchs. Often they are states in republics, where the Carolinas and Georgia remain by inertia; historical neutrality trumpeting any politician who was deemed 'historical' by his contemporaries. Would not the USA be improved with a state called Victoria (perhaps renaming Puerto Rico?)

So I welcome Queen Elizabeth Land, a snowbound Antarctic desert, where one final monarch can be named on her Diamond Jubilee for all that we now hold dear: the wonders of scientific knowledge and the breathtaking beauty of a desolate, impenetrable and inhumane landscape. A fitting tribute as the second Elizabethan Age draws to a close!

2060: unknowable

The OECD has piloted a new economic model extrapolating from now to 2060. Their unsurprising conclusion is that poor countries will grow faster than rich countries; and that incomes between countries will tend to converge. The research dows reflect many of the assumptions laid down in the first years of this century. Globalisation, the rise of China and the Great Stagnation (whose first phase was called the Great Moderation due to the initial accumulation of debt) are all factored in. 

The model takes no account of politics, disruption or revolution: the stresses and strains that all countries tend to buckle under as they journey through the unforeseen byways of modernity (being that which is always ahead of us). Think of what could destroy the expected growth: new energy sources (shales for one); demographic decline in China and Northern Eurasia (no people, no growth); the decline of melting pots and their incorporation into new cultural spheres (Unidos Estados de Americanos, a Sinicised Australia, an Africanised Europe, a Russian kalifaat). Perhaps a Singularity! 

Europe will flush Cameron out of the long grass

Following the call by Barroso for a new European treaty that would lead to further integration amongst all Member States (and not just the Eurozone), both Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande have supported the calls for further discussions. This does not mean that the ruling governments of France or Germany are motivated by the same ideological goals, facing the same pressures and campaigning for the same outcomes. Nevertheless, in examining the urgency of the Eurozone's breakdown, both countries are clear that greater integration, even a form of federation, is required. Angela Merkel will be regarded as the woman who abandoned the Basic Law, unless the Germans vote "No" (not unlikely).

Arguments currently debate the level of debt mutualisation, the regulation of financial institutions and whether integration should be restricted to the Eurozone or encompass all member states. The proposals endorse both fiscal integration within the Eurozone and centralised debt oversight across the entire political union. Most of these discussions take place within the Future of Europe group (involving both intra- and extra-Eurozone Member States). Although most of these debates have not shifted towards an endorsement of federalism, there is a hunger for an extension of qualified majority voting and a further process of integration to enhance the EU's voice of the world (Vox grandstandia pompositia).

Naturally, with negotiations due to start as soon as possible under the crucifix of the crisis, Cameron's long grass game past the next election appears vulnerable to the ambitions of the European political class. European hunters will flush their British game and force him to make a decision.

The lure of prediction

Perhaps it is a function of the "season" or the "silly season" in the news that subjects usually bubbling under may acquire a prominence or significance before merging back into the ambient noise. One of the subjects that acquired a signature tune last month was the science of 'cliodynamics'. This was a term coined by Peter Turchin, a mathemematical ecologist from the University of Connecticut who sieves that kaleidoscope of the past to discern measurable and predictable laws. For where there is law, there is prediction.

Ignoring the arguments for and against looking for laws in human behaviour, I turn to why this minor article was picked up by the press. The attention was garnered by the convergence of science and prophecy; we are fascinated by the lure of a science that could predict, and prevent, future events. All politicians are tempted by a rational crystal ball. Especially in the now, when all trends appear broken, all narratives lost, the rise of an eschatological story is probably overdue. 

Apart from the power laws charted in economic and technological innovation, the dynamics of human activity at a macroscopic level remain opaque. I doubt that cliodynamics will replace the usual teleology adopted by those proud to predict in the face of overwhelming evidence; that of class struggle

 

Brussels and Babel

What is actually happening in Euroland now? It is totally confused, as each tries to outdo the other in shoring up or casting down those aspects they do not agree with. I mentioned a few weeks ago that it was unclear to me how the political dynamic of democracies could be so subverted that politicians gleefully skipped to the guillotine.

Do they wish to recreate the Tower of Babel? This was a tower designed to pierce the heavens and ensure that the post-flood generations remained united. Was there not a similar drive in Europe to confound the consequences of war and ensure that it never happened again? 

We are in a time of confounding. The European speech is foundering upon the different interests of each nation. Soon, they will say the same words and mean the complete opposite. It is not a divine punishment, just the natural end of a utopian ideology, driven at maximum speed towards the wall of European histories.  

Elections on ice

The European institutions have adopted the very policy positions that spell out the doom that came to Madrid (and Rome, and so on). Incompetence is wedded to demands for greater austerity and banking capital at a time of economic collapse. The Commission twists the touniquet to ensure that more blood spurts out. 

Yet as more countries are taken down for the good of the whole, one does wonder at the strength of the European ideology. An outsider, aware of its flaws and irrationality, expects that the politicians will come to their senses, return to rationality and plot a course that could start to reduce these risks. Yet, they are enchanted by the irreversibility of the project: go forward, never back; except the road has almost run its course and they are out of time. 

The allegiance of all centre parties to Europe will invite extremes. The Greek election was an early example. Other elections will prove more radical in the years to come. If the Europeans prove as competent here as they have in currency union, then we must view democracy in danger, from extremist illiberals and technocrats. Will Europe engineer technocratic suspensions to foil Eurosceptic takeovers; elections on ice until people have again proved their fitness to vote?

Let's talk it out..

Good news for the government; they won the vote on the bill to gerrymander (a new Liberal Democratic term) the House of Lords. Bad news for Clegg is the Tories threw out timetabling restrictions. 

Let's wheel on the grannies to talk this one to death.

Left hand saved by the right hand in France

The financial crisis is spawning political surprises. The hard left did less well than expected in the first round of the French presidential campaign. The drift from communism to National Front was the clear winner, driving Marianne Le Pen to third place.

Unless Sarkozy can draw on the reservoir on far right voters (deemed very unlikely), Hollande and the Socialists will win the vote. The Left is saved by the Right. The Eurozone is tipping towards the Latins.

A strategy for growth in Greece: parachute in the tax inspectors

Next month, we will be able to read the results of a new strategy for growth in Greece. This is from the same set of countries that has decided to send a flood of experts to aid the Greek government. Would this be a charitable donation of professionals to plug the gap left by an unendng stream of migrants seeking better lives and lower taxes elsewhere? When one sees the rise in poverty and hardship, one sees the disconnect between the creditors and those suffering.

Europe is helping Greece out by sending tax collectors. This currently counts as the only growth industry in the entire country. If the bloodletting of recession is not sufficient, European vampires wish to siphon what demand is left by "identifying" tax evaders and seizing their assets. 

This is part of Greece's permanent subordination; from Member State to paralysis. More revolting is the lack of pride by the citizenry in their own country. Their abject servitude before unelected appointees who have effectively disenfranchised their voice and tax them without representation.

We see the limits of the model. Soon, Europe will have to narrow the choice of political parties, since Member States may vote in a way unhelpful to the Project. Thank God we are travelling towards the exit.