The Bewilderness

The new imperialist powers

Putin's opportunism in moving troops near and into Ukraine territory acts as the fiercest gauntlet to the post-Cold War settlement yet seen. Based upon notions of a 'sphere of influence', the rash of articles and statements in recents days devoted to the dismemberment of that country reveals some of the 'justifications' for domestic and international consumption.

Yet, if Russia effects an invasion, even in a limited form, this will be a consequence of confusion in US foreign policy. The vacillation and conflicted decisions arising from the Obama administration has left other powers confused or hungry. Why sould Russia listen to the United States now? Who has the boots on the ground? 

However, the Ukraine is not Georgia and the risks of conflict are far higher. Breaking the territorial integrity of a near neighbour will backfire. How can others trust a large power if it undertakes a revisionist aggrandisement of territory? Other countries in East and South East Asia will note the correspondences with Chinese salami tactics and conclude that appeasement achieves nothing. This has set the scene for possible war.

Round One in Kiev

The media outside of the Ukraine may view recent developments in terms of winners and losers. The protestors have ended their occupation of government buildings after the authorities accepted an amnesty for all those who demonstrated against the current regime. Many have bandied round the thought of a 'civil war' if President Vanukovych had continued to tighten repression.  

Against a backdrop of economic chaos and self-organising militias, the picture that beckons is anarchy, rather than conflict. Yanukovych can no longer command the support of the Ukrainian elite as the fall of the government has demonstrated. The authority of the institutions has been checked and weakened by the streets.

Ukraine remains in a stand-off, not a lockdown. Protestors and government are getting their breath back, but it is unclear if President Yanukovych can co-operate with the disaffected. This is the second potential revolution in a decade and people will not be satisfied with a tinkering of the status quo. I wonder how much has to go?  

A Century of War comes to an end (for now)

Be careful what you wish for. The Guardian's article on the army notes that we have withdrawn from Afghanistan, this may be the first year that the country has not waged conflict since 1914 (or 1707)...take your pick! A cautious Ministry of Defence has noted this vacation from war as a "strategic pause". 

Usually when such interregnums occur, the next war caused by a geopolitical surprise or some enterprising ally, usually intervenes. The Guardian makes great play with the notion that a more multicultural Britain is less inclined to go to war, especially in majority Muslin countries. Their simplistic glee at this withdrawal shines faintly through the article. Yet, there is no evidence that this is the case(One could argue that increased immigration and trouble leads to support for quelling sources of terrorism: the theory behind Iraq).

Professor Richard English, a historian at St Andrews University who studies war and terrorism, said that although many British Muslims had been greatly concerned that their country was waging war in Muslim countries, Britain's war-weariness was a more complex and extensive phenomenon.

"It may be that multiculturalism is a grace note or a second melody in there – I'm not sure that it's the main thing," he said. Instead, he believes war-weariness is focused on Iraq and Afghanistan as a result of what he described as "the dodgy bill of goods" that led to the former and the uncertain achievements of the latter.

"The decision in the House of Commons about Syria was really a decision about Iraq, but a few years late," he said.

English added that war-weariness was a cyclical affair. "It is always easy between conflicts to forget how nasty they are, and this amnesia is one of our worst enemies.

We are tired of war for a while.

Elite convergence, voter divergent

Syed Kamall and the British Conservative group in Parliament reacted strongly to a proposed reorganisation of the committee structure in the European Parliament. The proposal included a new sub-Committee for the Eurozone with powers over monetary union, financial regulation and banking. Unsurprisingly, patriots saw the implications for Brtish interests and the Eurofanatical Liberal Democrats jumped at the chance to do down their own country.

Yet, this is increasingly the fate of Britain within the current structures of the European Union. Marginalisation and the defeat of our interests by a convergent bloc that is divorced from their voters and has presided over economic ruin. Only the ballot box can upset this trend. And it probably will....