The Bewilderness

No slowdown yet

Intel recently encountered production difficulties that cramped its ability to retain the lead in the shorthand of Moore's law. The company is bring 14 nanometres into range on its chips with 10nm achieved in the laboratory. So currently, there is no brick wall ahead. The latest hiccup was a rise in defects in the new chip process: down to manufacturing errors and not to fundamental limits.

And if there is an example of how economic incentives can redouble, by orders of magnitude, the computing capabilities of hardware, then the challenges of Bitcoin mining give a keen example: you can no longer create new money on your PC. The technological race transformed "don't do this at home" to "can't do this at home".

Syria talks

The breakthrough in talks with Iran over the (alleged) denuclearisation of the country has further cemented the diplomatic coordination between Russia and the United States. Both Obama and Putin view the defusing of certain geopolitical frictions as a public good: the Democrats are assured of work towards stability in the Syrian civil war.

News of the announcement that diplomatic talks between the Assad regime and the mainstream opposition will commence on the 22nd January is a surprise. Both parties are squeezed by the continual stalemate in the country. Both parties are alarmed at the rise of Islamist militias, peopled by foreign jihadists, that are achieving greater military success on the battlefield. 

After atrocities and devastation, the picture of a post-Assad and more pluralistic regime is coming into play. The secular minorities fear the monad of Islamism and would prefer the devil they know. Yet there is no going back to the repressive Ba'athist dictatorship. The announcement of the dates will lead to more fighting as both sides jostle for position: some jihadist groups may peel off, desirous of a place at the table.

A truism: faced with a greater threat of instability and Al-Qaeda with power, stakeholders in the Middle East have found that their cause is not served by chaos. Even Saudi Arabia and Israel serve as silent observers at this table: waiting to see what sort of accommodation is achieved.

 

 

China's latest tests the US

The dispute between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea has been simmering for over a year now. Occasional stories seep out over various provocations, primarily from the Chinese side (such as the aggressive use of ships and drones to scare the Japanese). That escalation has become more ferocious.

About a week ago, Japan confirmed that Chinese drones overflying the islands would be shot down. In more than a tit-for-tat, the Chinese have designated a new air-defence zone that extends halfway to the Japanese islands and incorporates the disputed islets. Yet this is now a provocation for the United States as well as the Japanese. The zone lies directly across the route between Okinawa and South Korea. The United States could fly round this designated zone; perhaps this will be the US response.

So far, the United States has not responded to the Chinese ratchet. Stay silent on this latest extension and the next may be Taiwan. 

 

 

 

 

Threats to the High Frontier

Strategic argumnents on the high frontier have been smothered by the decade of war that exposed the underbelly of the West. Hunkered down in the Muslim world left the United States distracted whilst China built up its confidence and began to dominate its periphery, through the development of "core interests". These have now expanded to the South China Sea and the Senkaku (Diaoyu) islands: an aggressive approach designed to create facts on the ground: a Chinese presence that counteracts the rhetoric of Obama's pivot to the Pacific (described by its security critics in South East Asia as more of a useless pirouette).

China, as yet, is unable to challenge US military dominance in a straight fight. Therefore, they rely on asymmetric skills to leverage their power. The use of hacking, aggression against poorer neighbours and a desire to dominate space. To this end, they have set their sites on establishing a new space race with the United States and developing satellite weapons that could seriously damage America's capability to make war.

More worrying are the cultural differences between China and the West in regards to deterrence. China defines deterrent actions as a form of coercion: designed to compel an opponent to submit through a an escalating strategy of force stopping short of war. The West's traditional vision of deterrence is a chess game: an open strategy designed to avoid compulsion or any form of action: reinforcing the status quo. The potential misunderstanding between a revisionist and a stationary power are clear.

There is no doubt that Chinese dominance of the high frontier would radically alter the international system and undermine the rules based liberal order promoted by the West. Such actions need to be deterred as pre-emption will not be viewed as an order to submit by the United States. 

The dangers of splashback

Even the most mundane and natural of activities requires study. Every individual will have their own holding pattern and skilled action in aiming at the receptacle. It isn't a sport but eye/hand corrdination are shared. Taking your eyes off the balls could result in disaster, especially in a public place. 

Let us hope that the insights from this latest study will help everyone in this deceptively simple but risky manoevre.

From NATO to neutrality: Mitteleuropa's path in the 21st century

Germany's actions become more contorted in their reaction to the revelations of spying. It appears that the British embassy has undertaken surveillance of Berlin. No doubt this has been taking place since the beginning of the Cold War with various permutations. As the Telegraph article notes, the Russian embassy is only one street away (and I wonder where the French embassy is).

The German Foreign Ministry has called in British embassy staff in Berlin for an explanation. If they do extend this path of displeasure and create further difficulties with the 'Five Eyes', this will represent a further turn towards neutrality in Mitteleuropa; a turn noted in Atlanticist capitals and a further reminder that NATO remains in form, but that trust in collective action must further diminish. 

Terra Novae

The number of planets within the habitable zone that could potentially support life is far higher than previously supposed. This begs the question: what are the chances of complex life arising on each of these spheres and consciousness developing as a product of natural selection. It is very hard to quantify but within that riddle lies some of the answers to Fermi's paradox.

Surveillance states

No surprises that Britain, specifically GCHQ, has become the Atlantic Bridge, between European and North American surveillance. It is quite astonishing that GCHQ's role encompassed training, assessment of their competence and acting as a negotiator in passing knowhow on elint exercises. Now their role is out in the open, though there is a muted call for reform in the United Kingdom. No doubt a perverse pride in the role of the spies helps and the strong relationship with the telecommunications and internet companies remain in place (Does this explain the appointment of Huawei? A sanctioned link to the Chinese? Have we been exporting our expertise even to Beijing? And importing theirs?)

The role of Germany is unclear. The attempts by the German secret services to enhance surveillance have caused immense oppoition at home. This may stem from Angela Merkel's experience of living in Eastern Germany and explains her personal anger at actions associated with police states. The revelations have set off a number of diplomatoic activities that Putin's Russia have been quick to capitalise upon. Germany and Brazil have drafted a non-binding UN resolution that calls for the end of mass surveillance and will be supported by many countries that undertake such activities so that they can continue to embarrass the United States. There are also calls to give Snowden asylum in Germany: a move that could represent a distinct rupture in the security alliance between Germany and the rest of the West.

The actions of Germany indicate a restlessness in its role, with rumours that there are moves either towards or away from the United States. Clearly, there is a greater sensitivity towards surveillance in Germany amongst its politicians than in other polities and this results in statements and diplomatic actions. 

But like priests at confession: spies can only listen; they are unable to change very much in the long run. But they can cause corrosion of our laws and governance. Best they stop then.

Ev-psych and its opponents are so last century

Evolutionary psychology can create media darlings. What better basis for writing up those interesting stories that provide the key to to understanding some truism. A bias may be displayed but an article is propagated that seizes the concluding article and rips it away from its scientific roots.

An article on how this transmission operates does not take the debate on ev=psych beyond the opposition that first arose to the discipline last century. There is a Darwinian component  to human activity); its contours remain unmapped.