The Bewilderness

The success of the state

Not discounting the potential for dogmatism amongst all ideologues; the state becomes the source of immorality in libertarianism (due to its coercive power) and an adoption of philosophical underpinnings that theoretically dictate historical origination and development. Perhaps useful in a debating exercise but has the potential to reduce complex questions on where do states come from, how do they form and why do they persist. They do not come into existence in the same way and in some geographical regions the state has never come into existence at all. 

Bit if one were to pinpoint the most successful institution that humanity has brought about, then the state has a strong claim to be number one. It is universal, adopted in most civilisations (though underpinned by the city and/or the court) and adaptable enough to survive even the most severe of crises. The Byzantine state survived the Dark Age, changed and reduced, but still in existence.

Is coercion the key test for the success of the state? Other institutions are also coercive. Is the state successful because it acquires a monopoly on violence. State structures continue to exist and tend to emerge from polities with overlapping power centres, lacking a monopoly in violence. These tests are incomplete if viewed through a historical prism.

This short piece does not explain why states exist and why they contine to be successful; the ability to seize assets for collective purposes is a key part of that story; its immorality clear.

Libertarianism provides a key perspective on the morality of state power and action. This does not tell us why states emerge, exist and adapt.

A diet of Austerity undone; starvation will kick in

The criticisms against government economic and fiscal policy are becoming a crescendo following the advent of a potential triple dip. A case of "I scream" if the Chancellor. The arguments from the Left are well rehearsed mash-ups of cold Keynesian sick; of little use when they get back into power as the spigots of QE will have run dry and the bond market hunger for gilts will have been exhausted by the incumbents.

But the small actions taken by sleight of hand: some austerity, higher taxes, stealth inflation and so on have been undome by the recalcitrant civil servants, the lack of supply side reform and the overwhelming size of the state (which reduces all Chancellors to tinkering).

The British Leviathan appears to be incapable of dieting. Soon it will be starved by default.

Stagnation

David Blanchflower, writing in The Independent on Sunday, adopts polemic as the tool of debate in his survey of Coalition economic policy. The thrust of the piece is quickly established with a description of George Osborne as "the most inept" in history. A selective reading then follows: comparing the growth of Darling (achieved through a huge level of government expenditure) with the flatlining economy of contemporary Britain.

What interests me is the incoherence of the piece. Blanchflower identifies stagnant wages, loss of confidence and continued uncertainty as strong headwinds to growth. He slams Tory politicians for confusing deficits and debts (a trick they learned from Labour). Yet none of this is controversial or non-consensual. The attacks on Tories, fellow economists and 'anyone who doesn't agree with Blanchflower' strike the neutral reader as overdone to a turn. One can preach to the converted but are any solutions proffered?

Blanchflower intimates that workers need a raise so that they can spend. But surely any raise will be squirrelled away and used to pay down debt: that unmentionable: deleveraging, which Blanchflower forgot to mention. And is it rational for people receiving pay rises to incur more debt after the biggest credit orgy in history.

There is a policy trap: low interest rates, higher inflation, genteel stagnation. Any rise in interest rates will raise the animal spirits following a period of creative destruction. Yet, without growth, the government is unequal to the task of reducing the deficit.

This dilemma would tax any Chancellor and proves a more difficult context than most have ever faced. I don't know the answer but I do know it isn't pay rises. That was a trite ending to a trite article.

The Greensand Way Part the First

For a country so far north, walking in the snow is a rarity and a treat. Not that we can indulge in skiing, cross-country or otherwise, just a trudge through the usual muddy paths, now whitened and hardened by snow and frost.  My treat was, on Saturday, the commencement of the Greensand Way: a long distance walk that wends its way from south-west Kent up over the Downs and the Surrey Hills to Haslemere. 

The first section takes its course from Ham Street, a small village south of Ashford and circles Ashford to the West before striking out towards Sevenoaks. The path is level and clearly signposted. It was rare that we needed to resort to the map. The ramble involves fields and woods and villages. There is little elevation on this part of the path: even streams are a rare encounter.

Yet, the scenery was uplifting, even if the rolling white ended in the march of fields. One special moment was that vast expanse, cleared of crops, white snow mingled with the brown earth and a stark electrical tower planted in the middle of sight. One does not appreciate the countryside of the home counties for their wilderness but for their punctuated vistas of nature, suburb and pub. 

And the occasional surprise: a pet cemetery tucked away in woodland with crosses raised to Twix, Hammy and Puda Cat. Purrfect!

Roman itch

Never take artefacts at face value, especially in archaeology. Broken gaming pieces may have been misnamed. They are flat discs, about 1 to 4 inches in diameter, made of clay. The Romans lacked the refinements of Japanese toilet technology, but even they found that hard to reach itch most irritating.

The remedy was the use of ceramic disks, dipped in vinegar. Imagine the mechanics: a good, abrasive rub. What other artefacts may have been mistaken for something else?

Quadruple helices

DNA still has secrets to give up. The double helix can tie itself up in knots. An excess of guanine leads to a quadruple helix and problems during cell division. This gives us a new insight into forms of cell replication, especially amongst the collective disorders called cancer.

The evidence piles up that the reproduction of cells is robust and fragile at the same time. And this particular nasty surprise comes with a quadruple twist.

Time to kill QE

Ian McCafferty, former economist at the Confederation of British Industry and newest member of the Monetary Policy Committee, has laid bare some of the differences on that body. The good news is that he articulates the growing scepticism on QE that distinguishes the Bank of England from its counterparts elsewhere. In part, this is due to the poor inflation record of the Bank: impoverishing many with its lax monetary policy.

But with good news comes bad news. Economist have lost none of their confidence in viewing human behaviour via a mechanistic prism. Identify a "problem" and you could set up a specific solution to "solve" it. Is this not the Brownite tinkering that we have seen throughout all parts of government? One must hope that minor tinkering can be borne if the Committee concludes that QE has run its course. I suspect that many members remain to be convinced.

Another 110 years

Popular Mechanics listed a series of predictions for the next 110 years to celebrate their own birthday. The list is light and based upon what we see emergent here and now, such as robots and driverless cars and 3D printing. But, there is one that I like: based upon the march of obsolescence. Within 100 years, the last car fuelled by petrol will leave the assembly line. Except in North Korea.

Who can think up the next generation?

The next generation of fighter aircraft are taking upon themselves some of the mystery of Dr Who. No one knows what the next incarnation will look like or what he/she will do; though there is a lot of speculation. Every generation takes longer to build, is more expensive and is undertaken with a finger in the wind: to see from which direction the opposition will come. 

It is predicted that the fifth generation fighter aircraft will take fifteen years to reach a prototype. And it will be superseded in 2030. The USAF is wondering how they can plan now.

I could drone on, but no-one knows what comes next....This is an increasing problem for the slower timescales of defence procurement.

Cameron should set out his stall in Berlin

How to break news? Especially news that some may view as good and some may view as bad. Even worse when most of your own voters are not that interested and would prefer you to be concentrating on the economy. The general questions prancing round David Cameron's as he wrestles with six impossible Eurosceptics before breakfast. His right wing are (rightly) enraged by puffed up parliamentarians from Germany and some US functionary from the State Department telling us what they would prefer. These people do not get a veto or a vote; and Cameron better not give them one.

The FT (a pink paper if ever there was one) notes that Cameron's timing could upset the Germans and the French. They will be celebrating their postwar treaty and the speech could draw attention away from the day "hundreds of French and German politicians gather in Berlin" to trough away on another taxpayer paid shindig. How dare Britain prevent the media from providing coverage of this extravaganza? I expect it to make page seven (maybe ten) in Bild.

The FT, after the usual roster of anti-referendum Europhiles (Heseltine, MacShane and Cable) also lays out the location: Brussels, perhaps, or the Netherlands. Location, location, location! If we are going to upstage this Franco-German anniversary, why not hold it directly in Berlin at the embassy? If Denis MacShane is right and the relationship is viewed in religious terms, then heresy at the gates appears an appropriate response. We may get as much spluttering and squawking as we have had from the talking heads in this article.

Alas, the carping may be the most exciting aspect of this speech. Cameron will satisfy no-one and will enrage his critics. The compelling message is "Better off out" and all the scaremongering from the relics is nonsense. 

If we leave the EU, we will face declining trade, permanent depression, poverty and mass unemployment ...like Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland.....