The Bewilderness

Herald the age of the amateur innovator

Another  stab at the innovation trends of 2011 from Michael Schrage at the Harvard Business School. Fiev good and one bad, from my point of view, plus a disgusting neologism that his good sense should have buried. So I shall do it for him: "contestification" is not a word; it is an excresence.

Schrage lights upon the intertwined benefits of crowdsourcing, gaming and haptics as they infiltrate the corporate arena. He looks forward to participatory innovation using crowdsourcing, apps and gaming, especially in the replacement of brands and passive advertising with participatory consumers (potentially awarded with coupons).

Schrage's trends point to the participatory relationship between retailers and consumers that will come together at various levels in the coming years: he could also have added the link with mass customisation and power of peer review; for his apps, read potential communities of buyers, sellers and plagiarists. Does he not anticipate the age of the amateur innovator, whose ideas are taken up, for a fee or reward, by the retail platform?

Instead, he argues that innovators should heed the death of their ideas:

In other words, a charismatically innovative lobbyist may have a bigger impact on marketplace success in 2011 than the country's most savvy technologist or marketer.

I will give him kudos in coining a new euphemism for political corruption.

Innovation enervated?

Paul4innovating looks back at innovation in 2010. His take: plenty of missed opportunities as companies, overwhelmed by the downturn, did little to clear away the deadwood of the noughties. Is this an unfair judgement? After all, the Great Recession was of such a magnitude in its effects (still clattering away in the rise of poverty) that innovation becomes extremely difficult under rapidly changing circumstances.

Innovation becomes a secondary concern when companies are trying to manage primary risks.

"At your own risk": and we can't be sued either

With a commercial private space industry comes all of the paraphernalia of modern law, dogging the steps of a potential industry. We have come to the stage where the government write rules on what might be, and politicians have to protect entrepreneurs from overzealous bureaucrats. But, of course, politicians get their targets wrong.

Senator Carlos Uresti has filed Senate Bill 115, also known as the "Space Flight Liability" bill.  It would protect private space flight companies from being sued if passengers on board are injured or killed.  Uresti says if he would have waited to file the bill until the next legislative session in two years, that could be too late.

Why should private space companies not be sued if their passengers are injured or killed. The usual method of protection is developing appropriate insurance policies. This bill would prevent private companies and insurers from assessing or pricing the risk correctly, whilst negligent companies could enjoy immunity from the service of suit.

Amateur science comes into its own

Domestic science is on the up. Not the art of cooking, sadly diminished in the world of the celebrity chef, but the exploration of nature by amateur scientists. They have profited from cheaper instrumentation, better processing power and internet communities that can provide guidance and suggestions on experiments and observations.

This is not a new development and matters in degree, not kind. Amateur communities have existed in some scientific disciplines for generations, especially where professionals depend upon the observations of amateurs: astronomy and natural history, for one, Now, laboratories can be set up on a domestic scale and can achieve notable reproductions.

Sadly, the United Kingdom does not appear to have the critical mass for a separate society of mad amateur scientists.

Has Web 2.0 found its mark?

McKinsey's research on the adoption of social media by traditional and start-up companies has concluded that sophisticated adoption of the web leads to higher productivity and greater profits. Web 2.0 has a marked impact on companies and an improvement on their bottom line. It is not clear why this is occurring or whether it is limited to certain industries.

McKinsey argue that a commercial structure has developed for applying these new technologies. In the well used phrase adopted, a networked company, it is argued that networking creates better informational flows and easier communication between employees and customers, suppliers, stakeholders and so on. They look forward to a battle in the next few years between sophisticated early adopters and laggards.

McKinsey are confident that the time for disseminating the business model amongst a wider set of companies is now upon us. The innovative curve is quicker and more competitive than for earlier technologies. This should not surprise us but time will tell if companies and other institutions get it.

What does incremental innovation hold for the phone?

IBM's predictions for the forthcoming year are not very surprising. The company highlights five developments which will provide incremental comforts on a three to five year timescale. These trends are not earth-shattering but they do shine a light on what we can expect. And the trends of significance are developing more efficient batteries for mobile devices; allowing mobile data to provide new services or information maps, and; greater personalisation. Nothing new, but IBM gives some idea of what may come. 

A cold Sunday

I shall make a note to myself in respect of London on a Sunday. Nothing opens till twelve. Or eleven thirty if the shop is thirsty for customers. With a raw wind and old trainers, my feet were frozen, destroying any good that a Craghoppers parka may have had. And when the cold creeps in, it takes some hours to counter.

Just a cold Sunday walking round London, regretting the coffee. Nothing more uncomfortable than coffee on a windy day, that would be two hours after the cafe.

Cell circuits

An exciting development fostering a cross-over between living cells and computing:

Using yeast cells, the team there devised synthetic circuits via a gene-regulated communication method employed naturally by the cells. The cells are programmed genetically to collect information about their environment based on a set of criteria established by the researchers. The yeast cells then communicate that information to each other by secreting molecules.

Sikorsky unmanned

A recent unmanned rotorcraft was successfully tested late last year: The Northrop Grumman/Bell Helicoptor Fire-x. Most impressive for this demonstration was the length of time taken from concept to initial success: less than a year.

Key to this success was the use of the existing Bell 407 platform and a "de-manning" of the vehicle so pilot could be replaced by computer. The UAV was not designed from scratch; the vehicle was enhanced by adding this capability.

A key trend in UAV development will be the use of existing platforms to meet particular tenders such as cargo or intelligence gathering.