The Liberal Democrats are facing unprecedented division over the issue of tuition fees, a level of disagreement that could lead to a spilt within the party. Yet, the leaks and torture whilst the parliamentary party agonises is not the main show.
The number of student sit-ins continues to spread. Many major universities have witnessed sit-ins, with the protests ending after legal moves and police action. The issue of the tuition fees has catalysed a process of radicalisation amongst a group renowned, until now, for its apathy.
Despite the defection of some Liberal Democrats to the abstention party or Labour (expect a few now!), the tuition fees increase is expected to pass. Will this period of protest then fade away?
The dangers this poses for the coalition are probably twofold. Something which will be key, and probably needs to be polled, is the scale of broader public support for students. If this wave of protest can be coalesced into a broader movement involving other public-sector unions - and make no mistake about the level of student desire to make that happen - things have the potential to get very uncomfortable indeed for the Government. It may not even necessarily require a national figurehead like the NUS to achieve, depending on how unions feel about demonstrating solidarity.
The distributional coalitions that have developed over the last thirty years during the Gramscian reinvigoration of the state are key for the development of the coalition. The Tory party wishes to avoid a coalescence of opposition forces acting via extralegal means and testing the governability of the current administration.
The public sector unions and the students are aware of the power that lies in unity. Whilst student radicalism has outstripped the National Union of Students, we have not seen a similar level of mobilisation in other parts of the public sector. Nor is it clear that a wider movement of students and local council workers would increase public sympathy. Parents have a soft spot for their children, not their binmen.
As of now, public protest is a useful guage for testing whether coalition cutbacks are effective. If it isn't hurting, it isn't working. Cameron, Clegg and Osborne will wish to avoid a 'coalition of the disaffected' in opposition to them, a position that Ed Miliband hints that he could support but is not opportunistic (or principled enough) to stand his ground on. He was insulted as a student politician but this tacking to support people, not policy, would be more populist, hence more popular.
The outlines of the coalitions are hinted at this autumn.