With the renewed interest in terrorism plots, risk modellers (not renowned) for their forecast of storms, have turned their attention to terror. The key component noted is the number of people in the network, a classic consequenceof hwo information is disseminated and captured within the group.

*According to the Risk Management Solutions’ U.S.
Terrorism Model, the probability of a planned attack being intercepted
is twice as high if three terrorists are involved compared to just a
single terrorist.
If there are 10 operatives, the probability of
interception is as high as 95 percent, according to the model.
As an example, RMS said that in the summer of 2007,
two terrorists attempted to detonate a car bomb outside a club in
London. Although the bomb failed to detonate, the plot was not
interdicted.*

The risk modellers also theorise that there is a relationship between the number of terrorist plots and the resource of spooks to track and defuse their efforts. However, they then conclude that this relationship is cyclical presumably if all other variables are equal.

I can accept that the probability of getting caught is raised by the number of participants within an action. However, positing a clear relationship between state and terror discounts the roles of agency, ideology and technology. The efficacy of state agencies is a clear precursor to successful counter-terrorist operations.