The Bewilderness

Another special relationship

There is a refreshing tone to a foreign policy debate that engages with some of the major risks facing the United Kingdom. Cameron has identified one of the chief difficulties of dealing with Pakistan: its hypocritical nature in harbouring and fostering terrorist acts by proxy whilst taking aid from the West as a supposed ally.

The Guardian accuses Cameron of initiating a diplomatic row. Given the time and place, a speech in India, this has been chosen as a sop to the horse that the Coalition government wishes to back.

Whilst we have a change in rhetorical style distancing the Tories from the slavishness of Blair and the buffoonery of Brown, Cameron takes substantial steps on the ground to align himself more closely with US strategy. Especially with the shared manifest destiny of India. Instead of supporting the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, Cameron has acceded to US design and allowed the export of nuclear technology.

Holding no torch for international treaties of dubious utility, I do not fault the government for expanding trade. But in strategic terms and the rivalry between two demographic superpowers, is it wise to choose a horse and trumpet a 'special relationship' where none exists Our relationship with India should be based upon a trading partnership of mutual benefit - all other aspects draw us into a sphere of conflict where Afghanistan has taught so well.

Better to seek improved relationships with all coming powers rather than single out supposed friends where there are none.

One less public sector vacancy to fill

The UK Film Council has been scrapped. I am not sure why it was needed. According to a Guardian article, its inclusion in the quango scrappage scheme is a catastrophe. Presumably that is luvvie hyperbole for a bad outcome. Yet, who has come to this conclusion. Tony Hayward, Chief Executive of the UK Film Council. Not an impartial view then. More a biased testament of UK Film Council puffery helped by the Quango Support Group at the Guardian.

One must remember that any industry will gladly accept other people's money if it is doled out to them. It seems that the UK Film Council was indispensable, as a middleman, broking films to ministers:

History tells us that governments do not understand cultural industries: they are too complex, with too many moving parts and too many competing factions. When there was trouble in the film world, the UK Film Council acted as a translator to government and a critical friend to the industry: that function saved the film sector's bacon more than once. But no more – so in that respect, too, it's back to the dark ages.

Words missing from this epitaph include audience, profit, success, blockbuster, and popular. Another example of redistributing taxes to fund elite culture (unwatchable films) under cover of some utilitarian rationale for supporting an 'industry'. One less public sector vacancy to fill.

Miscycling Terror

With the renewed interest in terrorism plots, risk modellers (not renowned) for their forecast of storms, have turned their attention to terror. The key component noted is the number of people in the network, a classic consequenceof hwo information is disseminated and captured within the group.

According to the Risk Management Solutions’ U.S. Terrorism Model, the probability of a planned attack being intercepted is twice as high if three terrorists are involved compared to just a single terrorist. If there are 10 operatives, the probability of interception is as high as 95 percent, according to the model. As an example, RMS said that in the summer of 2007, two terrorists attempted to detonate a car bomb outside a club in London. Although the bomb failed to detonate, the plot was not interdicted.

The risk modellers also theorise that there is a relationship between the number of terrorist plots and the resource of spooks to track and defuse their efforts. However, they then conclude that this relationship is cyclical presumably if all other variables are equal.

I can accept that the probability of getting caught is raised by the number of participants within an action. However, positing a clear relationship between state and terror discounts the roles of agency, ideology and technology. The efficacy of state agencies is a clear precursor to successful counter-terrorist operations.

The Island of Misfit Toys

The New York Times had a not-so-recent article on how robots are beginning to supplement teachers in the classroom. These remain experimental models designed to impart simple tasks and knowledge at a primary level. Examples include language learning and using imitation to teach children with special needs.

Another clear example of how roboticians are speculating about how and where they can use robots within clear social settings. As most robots are bespoke design, they remain 'beyond design', a haphazard collection of parts that looks nothing like a boy, girl or their teacher.

Bringing Bread and Boredom to the Poor

I see that the peaceloving internationalist aworking class hero, Comandante "Paradisio" Chavez, has broken off relations with Columbia and expelled their ambassador. In an attempt to maintain peace, Chavez has warned the imperialist lackeys and running dogs not to take any aggressive action or use their forces to cross the border.

Columbia acted aggressively by, er, placing evidence of Venezuelan collusion with Columbian rebels before an international forum, the OAS. Refuting these self-serving lies, the great Comandante Castro-lite, he of the many speeches, and democracy dismantling regime, has put his forces on alert to maintain peace and deter the bourgeois running dogs, lackeys etc. etc.

Chavez is hoping to add Columbia to his collection and increase his tv ratings amongst socialist countries. Extra millions of viewers could transform our florid champion into the Bolivarian messiah, bringing bread and boredom to the poor.

Augmenting reality depends upon the network

Augmented reality is a stepping stone on the road to ubiquitous computing and the instrumental environment. But getting from here to there conveys some insights on the uptake and adoption of technology. Augmented reality is the overlay of digital information on perceived reality and bootstraps in social acceptance on networks like Facebook and peer to peer groupings.

The devices for augmented reality are not that important in the short term. They rely upon the smart phone, though it was originally assumed that such data would be made availabel through head up displays (i.e. digitised glasses). This will be a cool fashion accessory. The timeline given for the take-up of augmented reality is three to five years, assuming that adopters find an unrealised need.

“It comes down to ease of use. People don't want to use technology, they want what it enables. We don't want a mobile phone, we want a conversation; we don't want AR apps, we want the information it provides.”

Early geographical games and networks have come into play. How far are they precursors of this enriched, networked world? I suspect that the lack of a hardware requirement could rapidly disseminate augmented reality once the app and the needs converge. A paradigm shift in the way we view the world.

Waste 101 from the BBC

The Controller's Monthly Note from Radio 3 informed me of a new role that may fail a test of utility. They have appointed the artistic director of Music and the Deaf to sign a prom.

This Prom will be the first ever 'signed Prom'. Dr Paul Whittaker, artistic director of Music and the Deaf will guide the audience in the hall through the music of Stephen Sondheim in the company of the BBC Concert Orchestra conducted by David Charles Abell (above).

Music and the Deaf is a worthwhile charity that aids deaf pupils who wish to learn how to read music and play instruments. Supporting this minority endeavour through private philanthropy and voluntary contribution is admirable.

One must ask if private encouragement requires public support: and if it does, whether a 'signed prom' meets that requirement. Music is enjoyed by people who can hear, not by the deaf. This is a fact. Allowing the Orchestra of the Deaf to play gives public evidence that the deaf do not need to prevented from studying music.

A 'signed prom' is a sop to the irrational and a waste of public money.

Double dip coming our way

David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC, is quoted in the latest AEP article. He describes our world as one of "rotating sovereign crises". The lighthouse alarums circle round and light up the problems of each district one after the other. A month ago, it was the PIGS and the Eurozone. Today, it is the United States with the Federal Reserve's warning that the USA may take far longer to recover than anticipated and further stimulus may be required.

Are the markets unable to digest bad news at once? It seems to be a linear and staccato crisis, of alarms and breakpoints, single problems highlighted and countries crucified before governmental action sets up a firebreak.

The United States has turned down according to its leading indicators. Predictions that the $ will fall to 1.35 against the € can be treated with some scepticism. The problems are a series of rotating doors: it is a matter of relative perception when US fragility translates into EU robustness. It doesn't and, in turn, we will see Europe's problems come to the fore, as depression exacerbates debt and default.

As for the UK, double-dip seems a racing cert.

Make my robot moral, Lord, but not for a while yet

Wendell Wallach's recent piece on converging technologies and the future was recently presented at the World Future Society. ZDNet blog has undertaken a succinct survey of his presentation, with the keynote slides. Apart from the joke about soap (only funny outside prison), Wallach zeroes in on the role that culture now performs in shaping humanity. It is a simple truism:

We now evolve culturally and are as much as product of our culture as our biology.

This statement disguises complex processes and links natural selection to cultural change, a thesis that has not been proven. Nor is it clear whether culture and biology are equally powerful in their shaping, or if one dominates the other.

Assumptions about the convergence of 'theories of cultural selection' and progress shape the arguments of Singularitarians and their 'friendly sceptics'. I count myself as one, though its deterministic teleology can constrain debate.

Wallach's talk concerned how we craft an ethical framework for these changes and why our current, fragmented debate has not fully engaged with the potential autonomy of the machine and the enhanced responsibility of the human. His talk clearly kicks this off and attacks one potential myth: that the enhanced moral autonomy of the tool diminishes the need for moral responsibility on the part of the owner or operator.

The Singularity as concept may fail Wallach's test to think "comprehensively" about the shift in technology and humanity's place within it. As the most developed game in town, Kurzweil is the one to listen to and react against, if we are to achieve a more diverse understanding of what may come.

Scapegoating Brown to avoid the mirror

Candidates for the post of Leader of the Opposition may have criticised the Brown premiership before now. Yet, it is only now that David Miliband has set out a series of criticisms in the Keir Hardie lecture: paternal authoritarianism, spin, losing the way, and other rituals of blame the loser.

The long campaign for leader has prevented an inquest on defeat. Moreover, no inquest will be set as the opposition to the Coalition settles on a lazy 'have your cake and eat it'. Oppose for the sake of opposing with an ostrich's obstinacy. Patricia Hodge on "Any Questions" summed up this arrogance tonight with a look at me moment, I am going to criticise the Labour governmen moment.

No inquest increases the power of blaming Brown in lieu of self-knowledge within the Labour movement. David Miliband has sought that path. His record in government leaves him open to the charge of hypocrisy. If Brown was so bad, why did you not challenge? Weren't you part of the authoritarian turn? If it is good to speak up now, then why not speak up then?

Miliband may view this attack on Gordon Brown as a form of catharsis. But if the record of one is up for attack, then so is the record of all members of that Cabinet.