The Bewilderness

Change drives the centre to the margins

This has been a year of surprises for politics just as 2008 and 2009 were chaotic transitions for the economy and finance. They remain fellow-travellers as we speak though Society and Culture feel left out. Their turn will come.

All of the changes indicate that some threshold condition has been reached and that the institutions set up after the last bout of chaos in the 1970s have been found wanting. Most of the shortcomings focus upon the European Union and its Member States.

The changes are unsettling and strike at those parts of our country which have made deep-seated efforts to hold back the need to adapt. Naturally, these are the state and para-statal bodies. The last thirteen years have been an attempt to embed and featherbed the public sector professionals. That time is now coming to an end.

Such change will result in a renewed bout of reform, law and democratisation, rebalancing state and society. Removed from the teat, the state will shrink and civil servants will have no option but to 'do more for less'.

The last two years have mocked politics for its irrelevance, and that irrelevance will spread as other institutions prove marginal, when once they were central to our national life.

Trade returnees for holidaymakers

My dilemma is that a flight was booked for Saturday. I may hear certain siren calls from my friends stating that the ash cloud will lift and the restrictions will ease. Not really helping, guys!

With desperate crowds spending their savings on trying to get home, and cursing the one-eyed Jonah for his misdirection to Santander, I cannot see why airlines will allow new passengers priority over those stranded on the first flights home. You have a convergence of interest here, if the restrictions ease:

Stranded passengers who want to go home and,

Fretful holidaymakers who would prefer to stay home until they can be sure that a return trip is not subject to cancellation.

So, if we are up and flying again on Saturday (a big if), I suggest a temporary scheme so that those who are booked have the chance to postpone in favour of those who need to return home. I am sure there are difficulties but they can be ironed out.

There is a disturbance in the polling force

Have we faced a missed opportunity these last thirty years because our leaders would not allow a debate? The strong disturbance in the polling force has been the political 'event' of the campaign.

Yet, this does remind me of the fuel protest in 2001 where one saw a strong spike in polling indications before settling back into a traditional pattern. If the pattern persists beyond the second debate, then we can legitimately describe Clegg's appearance and performance as a game-changer.

This does also surprise me. Whilst the decline in the duopoly share of votes had resulted in long periods of government by both Labour and the Conservatives, it was clear that the system would crumble within two elections as the share of the vote was insufficient to underpin single party dominance. This process might have been brought forward by the expenses scandal and a general disillusionment with the political class. Perhaps not!

Whatever the result, a switch towards single transferable vote may result in a  so-called "progressive coalition" for the short-term, and as Nick Farage predicts, pluralisation of the political system may enable the opportunity for decentralisation, checks, balances and greater diversity of policies.

Won't they be upset?

Apologies for the hiatus. I am now the proud owner of a house, finally, taken the plunge, taken the oath, joined the PODcast. That's property owning democracy for now.

But for how long? This is shaping up to be one of the most tedious and dirtiest election campaigns for a while: and this tells us that there is a strong connection between boredom and turn-off. It is in Labour's interest to run a mendacious campaign without debate or policy. Slogans and fear will reduce turn-out and ensure that they retain a greater number of seats. Cancer leaflets and scare-mongering are two of the stronger tools in their campaign.

But is the same true of the Liberal Democrats? No, and yet, they appear to have adopted the same approach: slogans, attack dogs and policy incoherence.

The Conservatives are determined to be metrosexual and end up Janus-faced: an incoherence and disjointed performance that presages a transvestite cross-dressing government that founders under the burden of debt.

None intice, Brown bread is slowly succumbing to ergot; Clegg may prove a fallow leader and Cameron hasn't convinced.

There is a huge reservoir of undecideds that have the potential to upset all three parties. But will they be too bored to act?

Should we bet on the drachma by 2012?

Avoiding the electoral sideshow and the Chancellors' debate, we still face a situation potentially as severe as Greece. Bill Gross at PIMCO has warned that Britain faces a debt trap. The timing of such a trap is hard to pin down due to the long-term roll-over of gilts, compared to other government securities.

As the debate showed, a medium term reduction in government spending will be required, whoever wins the election. The reduction already signalled will need to be more savage than indicated to the electorate. The alternate is a market reaction and 'gilts strikes'.

Greece has already reached that stage and the EU has been unwilling to provide a Houdini for its member. Should we bet on the drachma by 2012?.