The Budget has been set for March 24th. The lack of notice over the date and unwillingness to divulge the macroeconomic direction infers that there are strong debates at the heart of the government over the timing of the election and the content of the Budget.
The media report that the strong division with the Cabinet lies between the realists who wish set out concrete measures for deficit reduction and the spendthrifts, led by G Broon, who wish to use government expenditure to buy the election. This is an artificial division. I doubt that Darling or Brown differ over much of the content. Both support a fiscal stimulus based upon debt and subscribe to economic growth kickstarted by public expenditure.
They differ in signals and presentation. Gordon Brown wishes to strengthen the political spin and ignore market pressure, with his defence of frontline services and delusional emphasis upon saving the economy. He hasn't and he didn't. Alistair Darling and Mandelson are aware that the markets hold the whiphand, especially after QE has halted. They wish to pretend that they will do the markets bidding at a later day: putting off till judgment day the reckoning of their policies.
At such a delicate balance within the markets, will the Budget prove the trigger for further economic meltdown?