The Bewilderness

The fiscal limits Europe's ambitions

The political story behind the month of negotiations on Greek debt remains to be told. The motivations and goals of the key players are not fully known, though media statements have been used as ammunition for all sides. Various options have been floated, and episodes have been interpreted through a prism of collective action (“federalism”) or instructive pain. If I may hazard a guess, I think we will see that the overriding effort was to reduce the possibility of contagion to other countries within the Eurozone rather than promote some notion of a European Project. In this, the strategy of “constructive ambiguity” has succeeded for now.

The ideas amongst leading players have also been revealed. Despite globalisation, the reactionary policy of Europe as an autarkic continent, insulated from the wider world, has held sway. This viewpoint channels solutions in a 'European direction', raising flags like a Eurozone monetary fund, only for the idea to founder under legal constraints and political realities. The elites were unable to push forward their proposals because it was unpalatable to any of their taxpayers. Elite solidarity fell before taxpayer reluctance and the fear of electoral punishment.

The limits of the European Union follow the contours of the taxpayer's acceptance of taxes.

Unconstructive clarity: coming soon to a eurozone near you

The Authorities employed a strategy of constructive ambiguity to avoid a crisis in the markets: a dance of the seven veils, each of which hinted at a bailout and institutional reform of the Eurozone. Yet, when the veil is lifted, we hear of obstacles, delays, arguments and unpopularity. Everyone seems to be blaming the Germans, though Berlin did not spend more than it has or indulge in a feast of creative accounting. The pesky German voter does not see why they have to work harder for the good of Europe. Solidarity can remain a Polish trade union.

Ambrose Evans Pritchard notes that the alternatives do not really exist: the structural problems of the Euro are too great to be redressed. Treating the German Constitutional court with respect, he notes that the bail-out will be illegal under German law, though his quip on the EU's fundamental lawlessness is spot-on. If the seventh veil reveals naked inaction on the part of the European Emperors, then Greece will head to the IMF. The opportunity for fiscal federalism and a debt union, as urged by Club Med, will have closed.

Current meetings are attempting to finesse a 'legal' deal that could not be possibly be construed as a bail-out. Crisis postponed for a while...

Unite divides Labour with its Whelan and dealin'

Labour's performance appeared self-assured and sure-footed only days ago. The mines primed to detonate in their path had been swerved with some swagger and to the mounting incredulity of witnesses. Despite the gaps in their presentation, Mandelson and Campbell appeared to have presented Labour as the underdog, humanised Brown, erased a thirteen year record and turned the attention of the media on to Tory policies. However, this elaborate ruse required strong roots if it was to be sustained until election day. It also depended upon continued Tory disarray.

The problem is that Labour can only rely upon presentation as they have run out of time to take the initiative. They are at the mercy of the economic and social forces that they unleashed: an iron pincer tattooed with taxes and cuts. That pincer is closing and no longer can the presentation be sustained without one eye on the markets. Hence Liam Byrne rowing back on his Bush impression of 'no new taxes':

But on Tuesday Mr Byrne attempted to dramatically row back from that position, fearing he had tied the Chancellor's hands just days before the vital pre election Budget is delivered.

When he was asked by the BBC about whether he stood by his comments about ruling out a Vat rise, he said: “No, I mean Chancellors reserve the right to come back to tax matters at every budget.”

U-turns and disarray commit the same sin as the accusations they cast against their opponents. Now the union revenant, Unite, under Charlie Whelan is bringing further discord and division into the arena:

Privately, however, Downing Street acknowledges that the rows, which have erupted in recent weeks over the selection of Labour parliamentary candidates, are evidence of a battle for ascendancy within both the union and the party.

Cashcroft may have provided a soft libel, but Mandelson and Campbell must be hoping things do not get worse.

Long-gone battles replay at one last election

Unite has a divisive name. But, strange that such political operators forgot that one factor that could derail their political fundraising and support: their own members. It is a killer confluence: publicity of Labour's union links and a demonstrable effect upon the Prime Minister's behaviour. There is no evidence, yet, that this has effected poll ratings, but it will reinforce an older prejudice and panders to the belief that the election is an echo of the past: a replay of the final battles from the 1970s and 1980s, recast in the rubble of a new defeat.

Who would have thought that the legacy of Tony Blair would be the unity of the labour movement via the takeover of the political party by the unions. A recipe for flatlining, if thei public sector strongholds are broken.

Nine points for Dave but nul point for majority

The new ICM poll for the Guardian highlights Broon's unpopularity and may steady some nerves in Conservative Central Office as they digest a nine point lead. The poll also confirms the large support for a hung parliament as a temporary reaction to the Rotten Parliament. Perhaps they confused the question with hanging MPs....

At 39-31-20, we are seeing a climb in the Tory lead after more adverse coverage for Labour. A weak budget and union ties will leave Labour looking to the debates as a gamechanger.

Don't be a victim of Valentines in Dubai

Will Dubai be marketing itself as a Valentines resort in the near future? Not for the tactile amongst us...

A British man and woman facing jail in Dubai for kissing in public have vowed to fight the charges and clear their names.

Ayman Najafi and Charlotte Louise Adams have appealed against sentences of one month in jail and deportation from the Gulf state, after they were convicted last week of kissing and drinking alcohol at a beachside restaurant. They will hear the results of their appeal on April 4.

Tyrannous laws? Foolish laws? Barbarous laws? But decency is a moral outcome, and there is no morality in punishing what comes naturally. They are victims of Dubai's crime.

Eurozone AA established: assist Athens

Newspapers may zero in or zoom out of the slow-burn sovereignty debt crisis. We hear of austerity packages punctuated by riots and general strikes in Athens. So far, we have not moved beyond rhetorical support in the Eurozone. Splits and disputes have marred the search for consensus and behind the scenes strains have spilled over into public comment. Nevertheless, Germany may finally have agreed to some form of assistance for Greece as a face-saving sop to the unity of the Eurozone.

Current market reaction has accepted the political actions in Athens and Frankfurt. Yet, this crisis has still to play out.

Judges neuter the defence

The Human Rights Act was a dogs breakfast from beginning to end, as every decision of the European Court of Human Rights, no matter how contradictory, must be respected. Therefore, application of the Act to soldiers serving in action must be regarded as leaving Britain with grave restrictions on her defence. Commanders will be second-guessed by the courts.

Mrs Smith’s lawyer, Jocelyn Cockburn, a partner at Hodge Jones & Allen, said: “I don’t think a court would second guess in almost any circumstance what a commander decides to do in the heat of battle. The issues that could be affected are military planning and the putting in place of, and adhering to, systems to protect soldiers.”

The MoD would have a greater requirement to ensure troops are properly trained and equipped before deployment, she said.

Given this Act and the judges who opine, some courts would second guess in all circumstances and judicial decisions cannot legislate for lack of money or incompetence.

Another example of how much damage needs to be reversed

Labour opts for a 'political' budget

Labour attacks the Tories for not providing detail in their proposed fiscal policy or spending plans. And if they do, they are attacked as inconsistent. But Darling will present a budget, the “most important” for decades without details of tax or expenditure. Then why have a budget?

''Crucially we have got to plan now to ensure we get growth for the future because growth is what brings jobs, jobs is what will bring rising living standards.''

Darling will stand up in Parliament and concentrate on goodies without spelling their cost or how they will be paid. Another debased and mendacious set of lies from these scoundrels, a low and dishonest party unwilling to square with the electorate.

This is a dangerous game. A political budget may do more than dismay the markets. Their patience may snap and damage could ensue. I would like to see what the Liberal Democrats will guarantee then.

Some things facebook do, michigan can do better...

A good example of not getting it. Some Michigan agency, surprised and aroused by the success of social networks, thought that it would be a bright idea to replicate this for students undertaking the transition from school to university.

The state of Michigan is currently building a custom social network called the Michigan College Access Portal, at a cost of $1.5 million, to help students looking to transition from high school to college and beyond.

One point five million dollars of public funds. To build a Facebook knock-off.

This needs no further comment.