Robert Gates has concluded that Pakistan has not cut its ties with the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan. Since Gates has always known this, why does he reveal this information now? What propels his revelation? Gates gave his evidence to the House Committee on International Affairs at the same time as the Pakistani Prime Minister was visiting Downing Street.
"They have maintained some of those contacts and those relationships, frankly, as a hedge because of their uncertainty whether the US would be a reliable partner and ally for them going forward and whether we would remain in Afghanistan until we were assured of success in taking care of the extremists."
This rebuke could be double-edged:aimed at prevarication within Obama's administration and duplicity in Pakistan. What it proves is that Pakistan remains wedded to its strategy of war towards the west and appeasement of jihadism. Despite the power of the Pakistani insurgency, the elites do not have the ability to overcome the strategic confusion that destabilises their polity: rivalry with India requires a jihadist state in Afghanistan and terrorist resources in Pakistan itself.
The response of Gilani to these accusations is internal posturing and external defiance:
Gilani warned that India was increasing its role in Afghanistan. He claimed Pakistani forces had captured all the militant strongholds in South Waziristan. He claimed the operation in Swat, where 2 million refugees had been displaced, most of whom returned to their homes in a space of 10 weeks, was a world first. But he warned military action alone would not crack the problem of the tribal areas which needed economic aid. Strikes by US drones had caused great concern in Pakistan. "We are fighting our own war, not America's war or a proxy war. We have the ability and the resolve to do it. We lack only the capacity. "Washington could solve the problem by giving drones to the Pakistan army, he said.
Divided against itself, the civilian leaders in Pakistan will not undermine the useless strategy devised by the securocrats for fear of a coup. No doubt, the insurgency will return, fed from the wellspring of fundamentalist activity directed against Karzai.