Iran has attempted to neuter the contemporary diplomatic offensive through a studied engagement with the IAEA. This complicates the argument for those who view the entire strategy as one of obfuscation and delay, using the non-proliferation treaty. Like NKor, they may be talked into acquiescence.
The real threat lies east with its neighbour, Pakistan. As this Jamestown study shows, the Taliban were preparing to discuss the seizure of Pakistan's nuclear capability as they travelled down into the Swat Valley. This proved to be the high point of their territorial expansion. Recent work has shown that the Pakistani security forces continue to roll up the Taliban networks and arrest their leaders. Adroit publicity of the Taliban state of terror, as implemented, leads to popular support for the army as liberators. The Pakistani army is not one to miss an opportunity that shores up its support.
The long-term danger remains. Taliban insurgents raise support through a revolutionary appeal against the feudal class. In the Punjab, they are beginning to gain a territorial foothold. To oppose this, the local elders have set up Lashkars, local militias who patrol the borders with the adjacent tribal areas.
Despite some rollback, the Islamisation of Pakistan slowly continues, at the expense of the populace and their future. How long can the current democracy last?