The Irish voted for the Lisbon Treaty by two-thirds, a result that is dispiriting for democrats in Europe. Integrationists and federalists are cock-a-hoop! After unspecified threats to Ireland's status and an unequal campaign marred by establishment agitprop, the referendum was won because of economic depression.
The cri de coeur of the federalist was an undermining of sovereignty. How could one country undermine a consensus of 24? The same utterances are now directed against Vaclav Klaus, President of the Czech Republic. Many of the institutional changes have already been put in place illegally, establishing facts on the ground, prior to the final ratification of the treaty.
David Cameron must hope that 'President Blair' materialises: a god-send to a Eurosceptic challenge. Look how a vote for change in Britain is now nullified by Brussels. Labour broke its promise so that the party could extend its power via the European Union.
Whatever pressure is stoked by the media and Eurosceptics, Cameron will not clarify. The Tory leader wishes to keep his options open: a challenge to an EU shaped by Lisbon or acceptance of the new settlement. Either scenario is possible.
A push for a referendum whatever the outcome is unrealistic:
The Tory leader faced renewed demands from his party's right-wing. Bill Cash, the veteran eurosceptic MP, said: "This is a fundamental constitutional principle. David Cameron committed himself when he said he would not let matters rest there. That means a referendum in any event.
"Eighty-eight per cent of people demand a referendum on Lisbon and they have a right to have their say."
Declan Ganley, leader of the Libertas party which led the campaign for an Irish 'No' vote, told The Sunday Telegraph: "David Cameron must now feel the hand of history upon on his shoulder. He has now to decide whether he wants to be a great leader by committing to a referendum or just another prime minister with broken promises.
The decision to call a referendum acquires different dimensions post-Lisbon. Europe as an issue equals devolution. It is a low priority and any party could institute changes without difficulty. Imagine Cameron calling a vote after attempting to negotiate in good faith with Europe. Repatriation is not permitted so the Tories opt for a vote on membership itself, and withdrawal to EFTA. The Liberal Democrats and the Labour party are forced to declare their hand as it is settled again for a generation, either way.
This is my hopeful scenario of not letting matters rest. But, events may not play out as I would like.