A new Telegraph poll sets the scene for the new political season with a 'backto reality' feel. After all of the Westminster froth and individual setbacks for Brown on separate stories, the Telegraph reminds us that David Cameron must do something unique, just like Tony Blair did in 1997.
The swing required is 6.9%, more than Margaret Thatcher won in 1979 and equivalent to the rout that Labour suffered in 1931. Are the echoes of the Great Depression deliberate? In figures, the Tories must hold every seat won in 2005 and add 117 more.
The poll shows that David Cameron touches a chord with the public in his approach over the 'broken society' and leftwards tack, and that he is not considered out of touch on conservative values. However, he has not won over voters in the North of England and still faces doubts over the question of style versus substance.
The selection bias of commentators emphasise ideological factors over attitudes, preventing an honest appraisal of Cameron's political achievements and his current position. Brown may appear a disaster but he is still polling support and his problems do not mean an automatic switch to the Tories.
The Tories are not fools, they do not think that the election is theirs for the asking.