It is now very difficult to parse out what is happening in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The number of demonstrations appear to be petering out as the engines of repression swing into gear using teargas and live ammunition to suppress fellow Muslims. The most symbolic death is that of Neda Agha Soltan, shot by two snipers from a motorbike, and her live martyrdom has transmitted this throughout the Republic.
The crisis of legitimacy has now been lost by the regime. They are persecuting reformists who wish to live within an Islamic Republic and have called their entire Khomeinist settlement into question. Even as the repression intensifies, the regime's institutions face a wholesale rejection, as swathes of the population understand that power was placed before principle.
Indeed, by their very actions in defending a revolution that will now be perceived as impure and corrupt by the protestors, a door is opened for new forms of Shi'a Islam to engage and confront with inevitable and painful change. Certainly, there is now an opening for fundamentalists to attack the Republic as a corrupted institution, and we could well see Shi'a martyrs opposed to the regime. Qom will surely be less willing to support political engagement after the failed Khameini experiment finally disappears.
The ruling imams may win this round but they have lost the faith of their people, and that is tantamount to losing the war in a theocracy.