Fiscal galvanism and Brown's path to catastrophe

There is some crap being pulled by the authorities, as a general consensus of confidence building results in a 'green shoots' rhetoric that comes nowhere near the reality. The decline may be slowing, but such a gluttony of debt, an orgy of red, as devised by our political classes under the lie of fiscal stimulus. It is the last gasp of a failed model; an elite, beholden to a economic model that derived value from the rise in price, tries one last heave to stimulate the debt laden corpse, and this galvanic twitch is mistaken for growth.

We are so far down the route that it is not possible to create a bubble. Slowing the rate of economic decline is the bubble. This is unsustainable, and we are facing a new crisis: in the first quarter, consumer credit became a credit, as the population repaid more than they borrowed. Seasonally adjusted, it is a minimal amount and a tenth of what was borrowed at the height at the boom. The liabilities grew smartly up to 2008 and we do not have the 2009 data to conjure.

So, we have an illusion of remediation, but loans are almost non-existent and liabilities, those are quantified, are increasing, or have plateaued.

We can conclude that 2009 is the year of fiscal galvanism. The catastrophist school remains a wiser bet as the economy died last autumn.