The Bewilderness

Labour's mid-term blues?

The initial onset of the credit crunch, accompanied by the perception that the government is doing something, has led to a swing back to Labour and a softening of Cameron's lead. The latest Yougov poll shows a nine point lead for the Tories, and reflects a "lacklustre response" to the crisis according to the newspaper. Certainly, Osborne's antics on the yacht have distracted a Tory response to the country's problems and demands that they search for a telling narrative.

This shows the problem that all Oppositions face in the event of a crisis, even against the pronounced twists and turns that Brown makes with figures and events. They are unable to create much of the narrative as a bipartisan approach is usually called for, and calling for alternatives at this stage is difficult, as the government will often steal the wolf's clothing.

The better press management of the last few weeks has been premised on one simple fact: the urge to bury bad news is again clear; evasion is in; and mendacity is the order of the day - accusing opponents of 'punch and judy' politics whilst taking measures to undermine them through press manipulation and leaks. Labour do not wish to lose this election and are turning to all means necessary: the spigots of public finance and the leaks to damage politicians. First Osborne, later Cameron.

Will these work? The key to this story rests upon the public's reaction to the recession. We know that they favour tax cuts to public expenditure, and that they have been impressed by the government's handling of the crisis so far.This is primarily due to the renewed opportunities for spin that the credit crunch gave coupled with a natural turn to the state for security.

Now that we face the normalisation of politics, as last PMQs demonstrated, will Labour continue to climb in the polls, or will we see a reversal as the economy crumbles? If the party wins Glenrothes, then we could see an improving trend for a while, and a return of that phrase, 'midterm blues'.

Singularity Summit 1

The Singularity Summit took place this weekend at the same time as the Libertarian Conference. Both complement each other, if like me, you are a libertarian and entertain the possibility of a Singularity. Next Big Future has an interesting summary of discussions: including Intel's plan to swamp the world with digital radios and progress in programmable matter, where they use local rules to combine and form a wrench.

One of the bigger debates that appears to have dominated the conference was whether the state should step in when robots proved to be smarter and more eficient than carbon-based lifeforms, leading to increased unemployment. James Hughes attacks those who argue that free individuals are more likely to adjust to this environment by calling for a minimal wage. Calling his opponents libertopians, Hughes invokes a current era of capitalism to keelhaul the future, though Marshall Brain's particularly vision is unlikely to be realised. I must admit I thought we were beyond one size fits all solutions to what may be a patchwork of local economic effects. So an unrealistic scenario resolved by a contemporary social democratc solution. Hmmm.

The Russell Brand and Jonathan Ross prank has proved severely damaging for the BBC. Good. There is little in their activity that fits the BBC Charter. Tory paternalist nonsense will defend the BBC:

The licence fee is defensible when it is used to provide things that the market would not but that are necessary for an informed and rounded citizenry. But there really can be no justification for using it to feather the nests of those who coarsen our society.

But the adoption of such outspoken witless clowns is the outcome of a state broadcaster that thrives on monopoly and whose unspoken objective is to compete with and undermine private sector alternatives. Hence, the need to employ the like of  Woss and Bwand. Hence, the need for the abolition of public sector broadcasting.

Woss's book is called "Why do I say these things?" and the cover shows that he is being silenced by a monkey or chimpanzee. How apt.

 

Libertarian Conference 2008

I attended the 2008 Libertarian Conference. It was one of the most successful events that I have attended, with Hans-Hermann Hoppe and David Friedman providing talks. Kudos to Tim Evans and Sean Gabb for their excellent event management.

Streamlining

Cuts in the Ministry of Defence are beginning to hurt. The Telegraph reports that job cuts in the Defence Intelligence Service will severely compromise our ability to foresee and counter threats, just when they turn up again. In any reduction of state employees (always a good thing), self-serving arguments will be produced. The alarmists could be right, but scepticism is a secure base when the same argument is applied to procurement:

As part of the streamlining project, there will also be cuts in the MoD department dealing with procurement, raising fears that field commanders will have to wait longer for equipment and vehicles requested as "Urgent Operational Requirements.".

Why these bureaucrats are unable to achieve simple goals, such as procuring and transporting equipment as required, is beyond me. Cut these bleating sheep. Defence Intelligence Service has contributed little to our defence in the last two decades, lacks intelligence and certainly provides no service. And they are still a cut above MI5 and MI6....

Creativity trumps the downturn

Recessions can be the tool of 'creative destruction', if governments get out of the way and do not prevent the next wave of entrepreneurial experimentation by 'softening' the impact of the recession and distorting the efficient allocation of capital. Gordon Brown, take note: companies and governments have to fail. George Gilder, always an enthusiastic prophet, writes of the coming possibilities in Forbes. He identifies four areas that the financial wizardry of venture capitalism can nurture: 'cloud computing', grahics processing, nanotech engineering and energy saving construction materials. Gilder is useful for identifying waves of start-ups and linking them to wider technological change.

A great line is where Moore's law is referenced as insufficient for our needs:

This vast expansion of the scale of computing across the network, however, renders Moore's Law doublings inadequate to meet the need for speed. A key answer is the movement of optical technologies to chips themselves by such companies as Luxtera, a venture startup in Carlsbad, Calif., technologies based on Caltech advances that link fiber directly to chips. Azul Systems of Mountain View is pioneering a combination of Java-based parallel processing with virtualization software to produce multitrillion-bit-per-second performance in data centers.

A contentious but thrilling point if we wished to measure the proximity of a singularity event. As a useful summary of tech developments, Gilder is hard to beat. Nanotech filters allow pure water to be sucked up from a fetid puddle and new construction materials allow towers to be lighter and stronger and more radical. All know that I love radical architecture: wierd, wonderful and wandering off the set of last century's sci-fi cityscapes.

*One has to look elsewhere for exciting biotech, Gilder's only blind spot.

Sarkozy's EEC: the emergent economic community

Emergencies, whether perceived or immediate, become the engine for institutional change. Where institutions display a formal rigidity during times of economic stability, yet depend upon political consensus, rather than convention and constitutional traditions, for their foundation, then they remain vulnerable to political change. The actions of Presidency Sarkozy of France are revealing in that they show the EU institutions to be adaptable to opportunistic claims of leadership:

Mr Sarkozy has proposed regular summits of the EU's 15 euro-zone countries, meeting in a series of 2009 summits of heads and state and government, to deal with a looming recession and the economic fall out of the financial crisis.

Gordon Brown, the leader of the EU's second biggest ecoomy, would also be invited to attend the meetings, following his presence at the first ever Eurogroup summit in Paris on October 12.

Mr Vondra admitted that non-euro members, such as the Czech Republic, "will not be able to prevent" the summits but has attacked the move as divisive.

"It would not be a wise move but one which would divide EU rather then unify it. Bypass is a method used to cure an heart attack, but is not a suitable method for cooperation within the EU. The EU hopefully, does not suffer from heart attacks," he said.

Sarkozy's proposal is transposed into the constitutional arrangements for a European President that formed part of the Lisbon treaty. This interpretation is wrong as the arrangements of an economic government are limited to the Eurozone and seem designed to co-ordinate economic unity during the forthcoming downturn. Accusations of 'Old Europe' apart, Sarkozy's activism fits ill with other governments in the EU, and his dirigiste policies are viewed as separatist and anti-communitaire.

The crisis does highlight potential changes in the political arrangements of the member startes, changes that could overtake the revolving door of the European Presidency. Sarkozy's intervention is interesting in that the gap between core Europe and enlargement Europe is revived: notions of a two-speed Europe or of variable geometry regain status despite of or because of the Lisbon treaty.

Here come the '70s

Central Eastern Europe is now in the line of fire, as the financial crisis rolls eastward. Even Russia, with its large reserves of $500bn, is facing a possible default. The consequences are beginning to loom: France is turning dirigiste and Britain is facing a slow currency crisis as the pound tanks against the dollar.

Here come the '70s.

Osborne: no smoke without, little wisdom within

The Osborne story, without any supporting evidence, soon ran out of steam. Perhaps, Brown, with his history of untimely intervention, put the sticker in when he called for an investigation. The Electoral Commission wisely rejected any investigation without clearer evidence of wrongdoing.

This gives us a taste of those politicians who would make hay out of hearsay, wasting resources and using bureaucracy to tie their opponents in knots:

Opposition MPs have tried to force the watchdog to launch an inquiry into the events surrounding the meetings between Mr Osborne and Andrew Feldman, the Tory chief executive, and Oleg Deripaska while on holiday in Corfu this summer.

Chris Huhne, the Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesman, wrote to Sam Younger, the chairman of the Electoral Commission, urging him to investigate the matter or explain why the matter falls outside his legal jurisdiction.

He said: "The law suggests that George Osborne and Andrew Feldman have been sailing very close to the wind. The Electoral Commission should either launch an inquiry or clarify its interpretation of the law."...

The Electoral Commission immediately seemed to reject Mr Huhne's letter. A spokesman said: "We have received a letter from Chris Huhne. Our position remains the same, that we have seen no evidence of any offence."

That came as Norman Baker, another Liberal Democrat MP, wrote to John Lyon, the parliamentary standards commissioner, asking whether Mr Osborne's stay in the Corfu villa of Mr Rothschild should have been entered in the register of MPs' interests.

Shadowing the company of Brown does revise my notion of Chris Huhne as a prospective Liberal Democrat leader. An opportunistic move that could backfire if a funding scandal it that party. Acting as if you are whiter than white is a poor selection strategy in politics.

This damp squib of a scandal has left Gideon George Osborne besmiched and hopefully wiser. 

Warning to Labour: this could rebound

As there are no donations, the media have moved onto Osborne's judgement. As he has stated that he will not take lawyers, this has given reporters to state with licence what would usually be viewed as libellous. Seeking a donation is an offence, but discussing a donation is not.

Labour have puffed up this non-scandal:

Opposition MPs, peers and standards watchdogs said the affair raised serious doubts about his position. John Mann, a Labour MP, demanded an Electoral Commission investigation into whether Mr Osborne and Mr Feldman had broken the law.

"Andrew Feldman has to be sacked and David Cameron also has to remove Mr Osborne as his shadow chancellor," Mr Mann said.

Sir Alistair also criticised Mr Osborne's conduct. "He is in very difficult territory – shadow chancellors should be very wary of people they may need to deal with when in office in the future," he said.

"I am surprised these discussions are taking place when UK law makes it very clear that you have to be on the electoral register to donate money. The Conservative Party is overflowing with money so I find the whole thing rather bizarre."

Disingenuous vitriol from two political parties that actually received money from disreputable parties, one of which appears to have been in return for favours. Unlucky for the Tories in the near-term, but sinning with politicians should not cast stones. They boomerang.