The Bewilderness

Gloucester's roman plague pit

Best practice in announcing discoveries has been suitably followed with an archaeological dig at Gloucester. A mass burial of entangled bones was found in 2004 and is thought to constitute a mass burial site caused by plague. The Antonine plague is dated to the second century AD.

It is believed the bodies were victims of the Antonine Plague, which tore   through Europe in the second century.

Archaeologists spent a painstaking 18 months analysing the bones, which were   dumped about a century before the Romans quit Britain.

Britannia left the Roman empire early in the fifth century. Either they were dumped a century after they died or someone is wrong. Lack of trauma promotes the plague theory:

The report, ‘Life and Death in a Roman City’, puts forward the theory that the cause of death may have been the Antonine plague, an outbreak perhaps of smallpox that swept across the Roman Empire between AD 165 and 189.

Plague, which kills quickly, tends not to leave marks on bone and therefore it is not surprising that evidence for disease is lacking on these skeletons. It is hoped that future tests on the bones for DNA will confirm this.

This was a severe plague that killed five million people and ravaged the Roman Empire, identified as potentially smallpox or measles. The plague site was a colonia and the arte of death was high enough to merit a plague pit. No doubt there are other pits in coloniae across the country that have not been discovered.

Embed

John D. McHugh of the Guardian embeds with the US Army, and provides a reasoned description of his expedition. This is a more sober affair and far removed from the dilettantes of CiF. Note how the embedding agreement is a conscious negotiation between military fairness and conscious scepticism, as it should be.

Before I can get the ID, I have to sign the embedding agreement. This sets out the parameters of what I can and cannot do during my time with the army. Despite accusations embeds are controlled and manipulated, the agreement is not the draconian affair often cited by those opposed to the whole process. There are obvious restrictions any army must put in place if it is to balance a free press with operational security. I will often be told of impending operations, including troop numbers, deployment, timing, etc. If I published these details in advance the plans would be useless.

There are other rules, but I would probably breach OpSec (operational security) just by talking about them. There are one or two I do object to, because I believe they are politically motivated, not militarily, but I have found ways to wriggle around them before. I will again.

What I am trying to explain is this: I have never been stopped by US forces from photographing or filming anything I have seen; I have never been stopped from seeing events unfold. In fact, once I was travelling with a US lieutenant colonel to the mountains of Paktia. I asked him if there was anyone I couldn't photograph, because of the ban on images of special forces or their equipment. Instead he said he wanted to be told if anyone refused to be photographed. "That means they are up to something they shouldn't be," he said 

Still, the discourse is familiar, as some of the readers will think that the US is entirely evil:

The phrase hearts and minds has been much sullied. But the concept is sound, and I believe that these medical services do more than anything else to convince the ordinary Afghan that the US is not entirely evil.

'Paper thin' army

The Labour Party has now cut the armed forces to the bone with three deploymentss yesterday, the Ministry of Defence announced that 600 troops of the 2nd Bn The Rifles would be sent to Kosovo to quell Serbian disturbances. The length of deployment is for thirty days, but if the disturbances last, this will take longer.

Britain now has no reserves.

"The Army will be holding its breath and hoping that there is no severe deterioration in the security situation," said Nick Harvey, the Lib Dem defence spokesman. "With a further deployment in Kosovo it is hard to see how the simultaneous operations in Iraq, Afghanistan are remotely sustainable, even in the short term." He called for a Strategic Defence Review "as a matter of urgency" in order to "better match resources with our commitments".

Embarrassed by Basra

The operations by the Iraqi army in Basra have proved successful. The last stronghold of the Mahdi Army fell on Friday, April 26th, in a statement from the US military.

It said Iraqi troops began the last stage of Operation Saulat al-Farsan (Charge of the Knights) on Friday in Basra's northern neighbourhood of Al-Huteen, a bastion of Sadr's Mahdi Army militia.

This leaves a question for the government. Why did Brown proclaim that British troops no longer needed to patrol Basra and Iraqi security forces could take over, when there were clear 'no go' areas run by the Sadrists? Was this an operational retreat to cover deficiencies in equipment and manpower, which Brown was unwilling to address? Prime Minister Al-Maliki was certainly unwilling to hide our embarrassment:

It became clear that the Iraqi units that the Americans and British had trained were not on top and required further assistance.  The Iraqi Prime Minister called on the American forces in Baghdad to come down to Basra to help.  An American General called on the Prime Minister, bringing the British Brigadier in Basra.  But the Prime Minister decided the Brigadier should remain outside the room!  This was humiliating for the British.  Since then the Americans have tactfully called upon the British troops to help with house-to-house searches and carry out carefully planned raids on suspected arms caches.

Under Brown's watch, our goodwill in Iraq and our professional reputation have been squandered by his niggardly budgets and unwillingness to fund the war. Such is the damage caused by a part-time Defence Minister and a pointless Prime Minister. Policy pronouncements of troop reductions left Iraqi civilians in the hands of thugs and murderers, on their watch. Should not the Tories and Liberal Democrats ask searching questions of this government's failure in the war

Pork barrel blues

A new paper from the government trots out predictable conclusions: Afghanistan is failing due to lack of support from NATO allies, lack of equipment and the poverty of success in nation-building. There is little that we can do about France and Germany, or the unwillingness of Afghans to trade warlords for police (better the protection agency, you know), but as for equipment:

In a list of "critical areas to fill", the paper says Nato still needs three infantry battalions, more helicopters, more aircraft and more training teams to help the Afghan army.

It also raises concerns about the situation after November, when more than 2,300 US Marines are to be withdrawn from the south, where British forces are based.

Budget constrants are finally forcing rationalisation of pork within the Ministry of Defence, as beloved employment projects are cut:

Douglas Carswell, a Tory MP who has written a paper on scrapping the Lynx deal with the Italian firm Finmeccanica, said: "This is a bad deal and the sooner we get out of it the better.

"We could announce, for example, that we would buy the same amount of helicopters from Sikorsky - and still have £580 million to spend addressing funding shortages elsewhere in the Armed Forces."

He added that the Sikorsky Seahawk helicopters would be available within 12 months. The Lynx is not expected in service until 2013.

The American-built Seahawks would cost £6 million, or the MoD could buy the well-regarded EADS Eurocopter at £4.5 million each rather than the £14 million for each Lynx.

Pork still rules in one quarter:

But one programme that defence sources have confirmed is certain to go ahead will be the two aircraft carriers being built for £4 billion in Scottish constituencies with strong Labour Party ties.

Labour prevents equal rights for princesses, but not for queens

There are shades of Blairite ignorance in the government's abandonment of abolishing the principle of primogeniture in the acts of succession so that daughters may reign equally with sons. With echoes of the Lord Chancellor, the complexities of this change required more than a simple change to a Bill.

The poll comes one week after Vera Baird, the Solicitor General, described the law as "unfair" and a "load of rubbish".

Mrs Baird said that ministers planned to give equal rights to princesses in the Single Equality Bill, which will be drafted later this year. She also wants to repeal the law that bans the heir to the throne from marrying a Catholic.

However, Baroness Scotland, the Attorney General, has ruled there will be no change this year. A statement from the Attorney General's department said: "To bring about changes to the law on succession would be a complex undertaking involving amendment or repeal of a number of items of related legislation, as well as requiring the consent of legislatures of member nations of the Commonwealth.

Seems that the only rubbish here are Labour's wheezes: once again, they learn that the Constitution is not low hanging fruit. There is no reason why they cannot do this: keep them busy for a while.

A heavy hand prevents terror

Language is important in defining your enemy and describing his nature. This terminology may have some negative value in propaganda terms, but utility should outweigh inconveniences amongst the target community: in this case, Arabs and Muslims. Their culture, revolving around anti-Americanism and a perception of victimhood, will remain untouched by cosmetic changes:

Documents obtained by the Associated Press news agency show officials in federal agencies have been asked not to use the terms jihadists and mujahideen, describe al-Qaida as a movement, or refer to Islamo-fascism.

Staff of the state department, homeland security department and national counterterrorism centre, as well as diplomats and other officials, have been told that various words in common use may actually boost support for extremists among Arab and Muslim audiences by giving them a veneer of religious credibility or causing offence to moderates.

The new guidance explains that while Americans may understand jihad to mean holy war, it is in fact a broader Islamic concept of the struggle to do good. Similarly, mujahideen, which means those engaged in jihad, must be seen in its broader context.

The titles of the two reports are sufficient to speculate about the paucity of the US effort, as it echoes the British. They are "Terminology to Define the Terrorists: Recommendations from American Muslims" and "Words that Work and Words that Don't: A Guide for Counterterrorism Communication". The problem with modifying a discourse for propaganda terms is that you may lose sight of broader questions and issues that tie moderate and radical Islam. Opinion polls clearly show that the attitudes and support for al-Qaeda are far higher than one would expect for a group or franchise that is supposedly an outlier for Islamic behaviour.

Similar linguistic contortions were undertaken by the United Kingdom government, to little effect:  as they have merely  acquiesced or even advanced the radicalisation of the Muslim community in Britain. The result is that there are now strong and growing links between Pakistani jihadists in Britain and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Softly softly dithering by a government that never took security  seriously has resulted  in British citizens becoming targets:

Britain has become the main focus of Islamist terror in Europe, according to official figures.

More Muslim extremists were detained in Britain last year on terror-related charges than in the rest of Europe added together.

The number of arrests rose steeply and involved "young, radicalised British citizens", sparking fears that the threat of an attack is growing.

The timing of a report from Europol at a time of debate over extending the period of detention is also suspicious. Would it be above suspicion that European institutions provide a helping hand? What is clear to me is that if you foster extremist groups and do not curb their propaganda or recruitment, as happened for ten years, you will eventually become a target. This started on Major's watch and has continued for the last ten years. A heavy hand in curbing Islamist literature and recruitment, through terminating radical Saudi funding of mosques, will prevent terror.

We are diminished

British troops are back in Basra as mentors to the Iraqi forces after the operations over the last month, where the US army provided aid when we were stuck in the airport. That is their only role, and one can infer from the letter by the Head of the Army, General Sir Richard Dannatt, to the troops, that there is a level of disaffection at our role. Listening to David Miliband on the Andrew Marr show just now, who would believe that we did anything less than sterling work, and that their political interference had positive outcomes.

The head of the British Army has taken the unusual step of writing an open letter to his troops in which he defends Britain's low-key role during an offensive against Shia militias in Basra.

The message from General Sir Richard Dannatt, made available to The Independent on Sunday, is intended to reassure troops in the face of claims that the British presence at Basra airport is increasingly untenable, and that the Iraqi government supposedly snubbed senior UK commanders during the recent operation.

This government has presided over a steep fall in Britain's prestige and influence, a decline that they mask with references to international bodies as a foundation for maintaining moral prestige whilst favouring inaction. Who does Iran target for kidnappings?

Five British hostages who were kidnapped in Iraq almost a year ago are being held inside Iran by Revolutionary Guards, according to two separate sources in the Middle East and London.

The hostages were handed over to the Revolutionary Guards by their Iraqi kidnappers last November, the sources believe. One of the sources said they were being held in the western Iranian city of Hamadan.

If confirmed, the involvement of Revolutionary Guards would be seen as evidence that senior figures in the Iranian government had backed the decision to hold them in the country.

However, British officials said that while there had been rumours that the five were in Iran, they had seen no evidence to support the idea.

The hostages are said to be in good physical shape but spending much of their time in solitary confinement.

The kidnappings took place to free an Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander, who was attempting to set up a pliant wing of the Sadr army under his leadership. Arrested by the Americas, this Iranian manoevre failed, but  five British citizens remain imprisoned.

Two year forecast:

Gordon isn't about to end his own political life, however, and Labour MPs still lack their rivals' rapacious appetite for euthanasia. So on and on and on it will go, the arrogance and the incompetence, the opportunism laughably disguised in the ragged clothes of altruism, the pathetic U-turns spun as "I'm listening", the relaunches that go glug-glug-gone before the boat has cleared dock, the denials that he possesses a reverse gear instantly followed by the illumination of reverse lights, the tiny residue of authority dribbling into the gutter, all the way to the early summer of 2010 when electoral law will prevent even Gordon from delaying any longer.

Scotland's fuel shortage, UK's energy insecurity

The strike at Grangemouth will kick in this weekend. The refinery affects Scotland and the knock-on effects could halt thirty percent of the United Kingdom's oil supply from the North Sea. This has resulted in panic buying and localised shortages of petrol in Scotland. The First Minister, Alex Salmond, has been accused of being out of touch:

However, Tavish Scott, the Lib Dem shadow finance minister, said the petrol station nearest Holyrood had run out of diesel and asked if ministers were "the only people in Scotland not to recognise that there is a fuel shortage".

He added: "It took a personal phone call from the transport minister to reassure Lothian Buses that fuel would be guaranteed. He's going to have a busy evening if he has to call every bus operator in Scotland to guarantee them sufficient fuel to keep their fleets running."

The concern is that a small facility can have such knock-on effects in Scotland. The strikers will note this and probably hold out for concessions, given their new position of importance. Would voters view Salmond's problems as his first setback or will the SNP spin this as a need for more powers to protect the Scottish when emergency strikes?

The greatest concern is the insight that the vulnerability of  fuel systems in the United Kingdom. Terrorists will note that life in the UK can be brought to its knees with well placed bombs in the infrastructure. Do we have a strategic fuel reserve? Can refineries be taken over at short notice to keep supplies flowing? 

Energy security is an issue of concern and neglected by the government. Each episode of fuel shortage remins us that our systems need to include redundancy and become more robust.