The Bewilderness

The Greenwich Tea Party

The Cutty Sark is aflame, although I hear from the BBC that most of the ship was removed for renovation. Only the hull is at risk. It is now "100% ablaze". Is this a suspicious fire?

Infantilising Professionals and the Poor

Some of the devices that the modern state has at its disposal for assessing civil action are rooted in risk management. The probability of an action resulting in damage to a person, property, or political objective is taken into account, in policy and subsequent statute or regulation. Like other management processes taken up by the state, this tool is not circumscribed by traditional concerns over the role of the individual or by notions of what is practicable.

The Times reports on the extension of risk assessments to the perpetrators and victims of violent crime.

The draft set of proposals on “multi-agency information sharing” was circulated around Whitehall by Simon King, head of the violent crime unit at the Home Office. The document states: “Public bodies will have access to valuable information about people at risk of becoming either perpetrators or victims of serious violence. Professionals will obviously alert police or other relevant authority if they have good reason to believe [an] act of serious violence is about to be committed. However, our proposal goes beyond that, and is that, when they become sufficiently concerned about an individual, they must consider initial risk assessment of risk to/from that person, and refer [the] case to [a] multi-agency body.”

It suggests that two new agencies — one for potential criminals, the other for potential victims — might be created to collate reports from the front line and carry out “full risk assessments”. But the draft does not spell out what action could then be taken to head off violent attacks.

The proposal, leaked in a document to the Times, would force council workers, charity workers and doctors to notify two new agencies if they suspect that an individual could commit or become a victim of violent crime. Since the process revolves around the notification of this information, its pooling and subsequent actions undertaken to prevent an expected outcome, other principles are omitted from this structure.

Public sector professionals must be forced to act on their suspicions, undermining their own relationships with their patients or clients. Professional judgement is circumscribed as this cannot be trusted to provide the outcomes that the risk assessment requires. Following this, the agency may have powers to notify the police to carry out its own actions to protect 'victims' or incarcerate potential 'criminals'. Civil liberties, data protection and individual judgement are all ignored.

Underpinning risk selection is the confidence that social indicators can pinpoint certain individuals. If the state servant identifies the problem, then the agency can swoop to ensure that the risk is contained without too much damage. The outcome is that both adults and children would be taken into care, accelerating the infantilisation of the poor.

The Citizenship Plan for Madressehs

The Times reports that citizenship lessons for madressehs are being rolled out to a number of northern towns after some initial successes at Bradford. It is a mere drop in the ocean:

Ruth Kelly, the Communities Secretary, will outline plans to extend to a series of Yorkshire towns a government-funded citizenship curriculum developed by local mosques.

The curriculum, so far taught in one school and five mosques in Bradford, comprises 30 model lessons on citizenship that encourage community work, highlight Koranic teachings on respect and tolerance, and emphasise the place it places on human life.

Ten imams in Bradford have been trained to teach citizenship and to speak better English, with an emphasis on sharing British values of justice, peace and respect.

Ms Kelly is expected to say that, with 100,000 Muslim children attending madrassas, she hopes all religious schools include such citizenship classes in their curriculum.

Given the security threat that we face from Islamists, who are taught that Islam is an ideological fundament and that Britain should be placed under Shari'a law, this NuLab, Brownite response reeks of complacency. It is nearly two years after the 5/5 bombings and, despite some tactical successes disrupting specific attacks, the government has done little or nothing to combat Saudi influence in Mosques and Islamic communities. We will all rue the day at New Labour's submission to multicultural norms, and unwillingness to use compulsion to reform Islam.

Potemkin Democracies

Peter Riddell calls for sensible and well-trawled reforms: the abolition of separate departments for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, now that they have acquired devolved government. What then of Cabinet? Some of the offices are clearly national: the sub-post office of Brussels (Foreign Office), Trade and Industry, and the Treasury. Others, such as Health and Education, are clearly English ministries, that masquerade as national enterprises in politics and the media.

This small rearrangement of the constitutional furniture pales against the reforms needed to reverse the hollowing out of our political systems. A good article in EUObserver summarised the political economy that shifted ministers from Parliament and serving their constituents as MPS to timeserving oligarchs:

At national level when a minister wants to get something done, he or she must have the backing of the prime minister, must have the agreement of the minister for finance if it means spending money, and above all must have majority support in the national parliament, and implicitly amongst voters in the country.

Shift the policy area in question to the supranational level of Brussels however, where laws are made primarily by the 27-member Council of Ministers, and the minister in question becomes a member of an oligarchy, a committee of lawmakers, the most powerful in history, making laws for 500 million Europeans, and irremovable as a group regardless of what it does.

National parliaments and citizens lose power with every EU treaty, for they no longer have the final say in the policy areas concerned. Individual ministers on the other hand obtain an intoxicating increase in personal power, as they are transformed from members of the executive arm of government at national level, subordinate to a national legislature, into EU-wide legislators at the supranational. 

The only way to break this process is to break the club and ensure that powers are repatriated to the nation state, renewing the link between the constituent and his or her elected representative. Otherwise, devolutionary assemblies become shadow rubber stamps for regulations negotiated through Westminster and implemented without scrutiny or consent. Under this system, an English Parliament would be just another Potemkin assembly.

We are no longer a democracy in substance though the forms are preserved  for now.
 

Sangin: Rift Valley

The British Army is in bitter disagreement with the United States commander over the tactics used in Afghanistan and the imposition of the 'war on drugs'. Eradication teams targeting farmers' crops, with local governors stealing any compensation, are a key driver forcing villagers into the arms of the Taliban. Yet, the Taliban relies upon the narco-economy for its funds, leading to a Catch-22.

The comments by the US commander are clearly wrong. His statements are designed to undermine an ally, as reported, and escalate division by replacing private rifts by public disagreements, eagerly reported by a circling media.

In an interview last week, the American NATO commander in Kabul, Gen. Dan McNeill, brusquely repudiated a ceasefire that his British predecessor, David Richards, had backed in territory patrolled by British troops. “In its best case it might have been a tactical error. In its worst case it might have been a strategic blunder”, McNeill said of the ceasefire in Helmand province’s Musa Qala district.

He added that he could not give his full views on the British-backed truce because that “might be construed as criticizing one of our allies, and I wouldn’t do that”.

McNeill's lumpen utterance demonstrate that he is clearly unsuitable for commanding a multinational force, if he is willing to promote an ordeal by media. Especially through Reuters.

If key allies are unable to agree on the role of drugs eradication within a 'heart and minds' strategy, then Afghanistan will be lost. Control on the ground lies with the troops and, if a drugs eradication team is viewed as dispensable under current conditions, they should be expelled. Contractors running around promoting Taliban recruitment through destroying crops are a bloody menace.

Self Service Libraries

When I visited my local library this evening and renewed my books, I found that they had switched from a counter to self-service, using touch pads and the barcodes on my cards. As this uses the same barcode system that has been in existence for fifteen years, the delay in changing how people like me take out books has depended upon some policy decision at Surrey County Council.

Scanners do come in a variety of formats, both barcode and RFID. A picture of a similar model to one that I used tonight can be found here, with the Codeco Mark 3 Library Self-Service Product. It means what it says. A quick Google search indicates that most self-service libraries are situated in academia and these are probably now being adopted in the municipal sector.

This has freed up more space in Bourne Hall library, which they have used for display purposes rather then additional shelves of books. Indeed, the whole library looked airier, more spacious and may well have had fewer books on display. Is this not the end result of all changes in library design?

I can see where this will take us next, althoughthe National University of Singapore has blazed a trail here since 1998:

To make it easier for our user to clear their fines, the Library has installed self-service fines payment booths in all the libraries. These booths are available as long as the Library is open. With effect from July 98, all library users must clear any outstanding fines before they can borrow another item.

Now I just need train companies to issue monthly season tickets from their self-service machines at mainline stations.

The Scottish Electoral Review

The fiasco of spoilt ballot papers during the Scottish elections looks like cock-up over conspiracy. In their enthusiasm  to conjure higher turn-out figures,  local and parliamentary elections were held on the same day, using a complicated system to record voter preferences. As all parties had endorsed this approach, with the backing of the Scottish Office and the Electoral Commission, an independent inquiry is welcome.

The Electoral Commission has hired an international expert to investigate the chaotic events which marred the Scottish parliamentary elections earlier this month, in an attempt to head off concerns about its role in the affair.

The commission appointed Ron Gould, a former assistant chief electoral officer for Canada, to head an "independent and impartial" review of the fiasco of spoilt ballots, missing postal votes and failures of ballot counting machines that hit the May 3 election.

This review will properly include the role of the Electoral Commission. All politicians south of the border should take note of the review's findings, and of the French elections. If you wish to increase turnout, hold a debate, offer clear policies and show that you are not a clone of your opponent.

Helmand, Kandahar and the Poppy War

The Jamestown Foundation have a new article exploring the links between the Taliban and opium production in Afghanistan. The narco-economy and the insurgency are as one. Both Helmand and Kandahar support the majority of opium production, with exit routes across Central Asia, Pakistan and Iran. Organised by the Taliban, locals are employed or enslaved to fight the coalition and harvest the poppies.

With the government and coalition unwelcome and subject to active (ambush) and passive (IED) attacks, areas of intense opium cultivation are the most difficult in which to demonstrate any reconstruction and development benefits. Alternative employment for mercenaries and alternative livelihoods for farmer-fighters cannot be delivered and those who might be attracted to such alternatives fear Taliban retribution. For example, the Pajhwok News Agency reported on October 30, 2005 that farmers in the Khan Nishin District in Helmand province were being forced by the Taliban to cultivate poppies under threat of death.

The Taliban derive an income of at least $10,000,000, and possibly double that, from their transformation into a narcotic terrorist organisation. It is reported that some of their own members are now addicted: the vicious cicle of violence and criminality feeding upon itself.

The British in Afghanistan are still basing their operations upon co-operation with the local villages, communicating with elders and trying to ensure that they can provide security for those who wish to remove the insurgency from their midst. In this 'heart and minds' strategy, the Taliban, with its local roots, must be expelled by the local Afghans, village by village:

Waiting for the local                               population to throw off the yoke of Taliban                               oppression is - in theory - a viable strategy,                               particularly if development continues in                               government-controlled areas. Many Afghans here do                               not view NATO in a positive light, but they also                               despise their own corrupt government and Taliban                               militants just as much. "No one gives us the                               respect we deserve!" blurted out one elder, as                               heads nodded in approval.

This is a long-term strategy that force will not hasten. However, linkage with the 'war on drugs' does undermine the effectiveness of the strategy. Income, security and taxation are higher under the Taliban than the legitimate Afghanistan government. Eradication policies are undermined by bribes and the narco-economy.

Witness Helmand's police chief                               Nabi Jan Mulla Kheal, who admitted in an interview                               that hundreds of government drug eradicators sent                               to the province this year made upward of $20,000                               each by taking bribes for not destroying poppy                               crops. Some of Nabi Jan's own officers were                               guiding the Kabul officials through the poppy                               fields when the deals were being made. The police                               chief conveniently left on vacation to Ireland                               during the eradication effort, however. "What an                               amazingly green country that is!" he interjected                               in an interview.

With such complex and incompatible goals, the coalition needs to offer clear economic alternatives for the two southern provinces, or they will find that they are outlasted by that glorified drug gang, the Taliban.
 

Brown: Early Warning Signals

The majority of the press is concerned with the eventual structure of the Brown Cabinet, with glee alighting on the down and outs. As Brown makes his ponderous procession towards No. 10, using horrific political choreography with the present incumbent, the doubts have grown. The political analysis of a Brown premiership has acquired a thirst for the personality, since the phrase "psychologically flawed" was used with such brutal intent so many years ago.

Having watched Brown's interview on Andrew Marr yesterday and the Peter Oborne "Despatches" examination today, there is a schizophrenic quality to the descriptions. We see the Chancellor try and provide a personable front to his fellow Scot, although faint waves of irritation ripple across his face when some question or remark disturbs and jars the placid Brownian motion, that his rhetoric is supposed to portray. He will look vexed when irritated, a cloud crossing his face. Only when the interview ends does he look relaxed, smiling and able to make a joke in the final minutes of the program. Brown does not do interviews very well.

This contrast was fed by Peter Oborne, who noted the smiling and charming private Brown with a political shark who does not understand process, rules or collegiality. It is disturbing when senior civil servants, like Stephen Wall, are prepared to go on air and state that Brown's unwillingness to write anything down, suspended policy and contributed to bad government. Instructions were fed through a small coterie, and civil servants or ministers were all kept on tenterhooks, by a Chancellor, who used the patronage of an inner circle and the opaque power of their interpretation, to govern  domestic policies with  the audit economy. No wonder most of the government has appeared on autopilot, scrambling for targets at the expense of effectiveness.

Oborne's final observations revolved around the capabilities of Brown in changing his managerial and leadership skills. Managers are rarely able to overcome their flaws, especially if they have been deeply engrained for many years. Despite highflown sentences on consultation and honesty, Brown's cultivated representations for modesty and prudence will not alter cold hard facts. Replicating his Treasury style at Number Ten will reseult in an acceleration of misgovernment, as he tries to exert ever greater control in oder to correct his mistakes. He is not unflappable. If poll ratings do not improve, he will panic before his backbenchers do.

Then, he will be an unknown quantity: Prime MInisters who panic are capable of very stupid acts, deeply damaging to their office and the country.

The Islamic Invasion Narrative

One of the more interesting additions to the invasion narrative, that school of imagination which dreams a world of Britain conquered, invaded and changed, has been D C Alden's self-published book, Invasion. The interest lies in the confused concoction that forms a fictionalisation of the Eurabian nightmare, the creation of a West Islam. As the blurb indicates, the imagined consequences are radical:

Britain is no more, reduced to a mere satellite state at the far western fringes of the Arabian empire, a vast domain that stretches from the dark borders of Scotland to the Chinese frontier where war still rages. London is a walled city again, its war-damaged historical buildings demolished and replaced with bronze statues, marbled mosques and landscaped memorial gardens, all celebrating the overthrow of western civilization in Europe. The city is a hub of Islamic power, a power that enslaves the British people to a life of servitude and confines them to crumbling, weed-choked suburbs outside the city.

The author acknowledges in his foreword that the script was originally written for film, and  the novelisation is  kitted out  for adaptation to the screen. We have all of the props of the disaster novel but not of the disaster movie: an ensemble caste, cut and paste following different characters, and no protagonist to focus upon. The rag-bag conceptualisation, the overwhelming infodumps, the lack of an editor (weighing in at 641 pages) detract from the interesting kernel of a better novel. Alden can write and he can probably write better than this.

The major problem of the novel is the lack of plausibility. Whereas the invasion narrative is described as the juxtaposition of an ideologically unified Islam, politically united in a militarised and jihadist Arabia  following its imperialist path, invading a supine, decadent and pacifistic Europe, the development of such a power would have caused some geopolitical concern, and downplays the Shi'a Sunni division. The United States gains energy security through the use of alien technology from Roswell. Hence, the thriller enters the realm of the unreal.

Such implausibility may reflect the sources of this cultural anxiety, of which Eurabia is a political extension. If we consider the stories told about Islamic invasion, the two most recent examples stem from chiliastic Christian fundamentalism or representations of other prophecies such as Nostradamus. These have often pictured a united Islam invading Europe with the final Pope dying in France, fulfilling Malachy's prophecy, another fateful addition to the brew.

In the wake of Pakistan         going nuclear in May, 1998, Muslim countries have, now,         an easy access to the "Islamic Bomb". And the         communist China’s support to Pakistan is no secret.         Could it, therefore, be that China, and a group of Muslim         countries would pact up to launch an attack on Europe the         next year, some time before the month of July? According         to quatrain 72, Century X, "the war shall reign         before and after that month".

       

Mercifully, however, there         is no mention of India to be involved in the nuclear         conflagration, as per the prophecies of Nostradamus.

The political, the cultural and the prophetic representations of the Islamic invasion narrative all play a part in Alden's novel. No doubt, this will eventually become a more fruitful vein of fictional endeavour, as thriller writers respond to the changes taking place around them in Europe. Thankfully,  the  future is more complex, more fractured and more optimistic than Alden's take portrays.