The army is aware that the Iraqi militias wish to spin the British withdrawal from Iraq as a defeat, caused by their actions. They have continued to increase their attacks on the British troops in Basra, as part of this campaign. The real problem is overstretch, and continued insurgent attacks do exacerbate this problem.
As the British increase their forces in Afghanistan, they are drawing down in Iraq. Although the drawdown in Iraq is based on pragmatism, the enemy apparently is attempting to create the perception of a military rout. So while the British reduce their forces in southern Iraq, they are coming under heavier fire and the enemy makes claims of driving “the occupiers” out. The difficulty is guaging how far, from the patchy information released, security in southern Iraq has passed from the British forces to the Iraqi security forces, or to the militias. The Independent has reported that the whole of Shi'astan is now subject to the control of the Mehdi Army (also known as the Sadrists) and rival militias. This has caused an upsurge in violence over the last ten days. The grip of the British Army around Basra and other southern provinces was always tenuous and is now coming to an end. Although the government in Baghdad speaks of gradually taking control of security in the provinces from US and Britain, the winners in the new Iraq are the militia, often criminalised, that have colonised the Iraqi security forces. Diwaniya is in Qaddasiyah province, which was never under British control but the pattern in all parts of Shia Iraq is very similar. Iraq is following the patterns of other failing states, promoted by Iran. The militias have turned from smuggling drugs with the connivance of the Iranian authorities, to planting opium in Iraq itself. The militias wish to obtain more of the profit for themselves, cutting out the middlemen, and reaping more of the cut from their customers in the Gulf. This is a destabilisation strategy, that will further Democratic plans for withdrawal, and aid Iranian influence. Like the Israeli aid to the Muslim Brotherhood, in order to undermine Fatah, Iranian destabilisation is a tactical opportunity that obscures strategic disaster. A weak and chaotic Iraq, slipping into the hell of failed states on their doorstep, will result in lawlessness within Iran. Drugs militias will note that customers lie east as well as south. The current complexities of Iran will find that the rise of criminal gangs in Iraq always leads to spillover. Will Iran prove to be the first narco-nuclear state?