The Bewilderness

Flintoff: Too Far, Too Early

I fly out to Sydney in full expectaion of a whitewash. Flintoff's captaincy, one that he eagerly sought according to reports, has proved disastrous for the team. England's failures have proved a two month lap of honour for Warne and McGrath. Who can blame them for enjoying this final high. They are two of the best bowlers in the world. Statues, stadia and status await.

Now they are contemplating the replacement of Mahmood with Jamie Dalrymple, importing an all-round spinner as a replacement for Ashley Giles. It is doubtful that this will strengthen the low morale and lack of spirit that has characterised this English side. When all heard Flintoff after the match, there was a gulf between ther supine surrender witnessed by the fans and the wilful ignorance broadcast by the captain.

Whilst Australia are by far the better side, a woeful decision to bat and poor fielding strategies, left England with a mountain to climb, and three days proved their worth. Flintoff's lack of experience, his appetite for victory and his inability to muster the troops leave me cold to the expected result at the SCG: another Australian victory.

If Flintoff wishes to redeem some small cheer for the fans, and ensure that his last game as captain is not an ignominious failure, then he needs to achieve victory. Not a draw, but victory. This may go some way to salve our pride and, perhaps, may lead to a renewed appointment, some years down the line, when he has drawn valuable lessons from his overpromotion.

Otherwise, Flintoff, follow the advice your name gives the rest of us. The second syllable is off.....

Hussein: Thereby Hangs a Tale

Saddam Hussein is dead...I noticed the news in passing on the radio in Melbourne. The news of this expected outcome was not a surprise; only the timing, designed to coincide with the Festival of Eid and the New Year. The shepherd's son was unable to die in true style. I do not know a lot about the iconography of shehade deaths but, like Eichmann, the termination of this mediocrity was banal: mouthing platitudes that he hoped would memorialise his legacy in the Arab Street. It won't.

Hiatus Hernia

From now until 2007, I shall be wallowing in the Antipodean horror that is the English cricket team. Some have pointed out to me that history is in the making: witnessing Shane Warne's final hours of bowling with 700 rounded out by some of the useless identity parade that walked the crease this summer.

That still has not mellowed my irritation at Flintoff's handover of the Ashes, strolling and crying around at the hands of the Australian cricket team. I will see whether we can avoid a whitewash. I am not hopeful, at all.

Blogging will be light and sporadic, helped or hindered by fog at Gatwick and the English cricket team.

Falcon's Summit: Defining Success

The news from the early days of operation Falcon's Summit is good. There have been a few skirmishes and NATO estimates that fifty Taleban have been killed, whilst two or three villages were cleared. At the moment, this appears to be a low-key affair, pushing the insurgents away from their rural bases and securing territory for the local government militias.

It is reported that the Taleban are controlled by a former defence minister:

Meanwhile, an Afghan general said yesterday, the Taleban’s former defence minister is leading a force of about 400 insurgents in a southern district where a major Nato-led offensive is underway.   

Mullah Ubaidullah Akhund has not been seen since shortly after the ultra-Islamist regime was toppled by US-led forces in late 2001, although he purportedly issued a few brief statements in the intervening five years.   

The Afghan army general, who is involved in Operation “Baaz Tsuka” (Falcon’s Nest) in and around Panjwayi district in Kandahar province, said Ubaidullah was giving orders to Taleban fighters in the area.

However, the International Crisis Group has warned that the Taleban could mount a major offensive in the Spring. After President Musharraf of Pakistan withdrew government control over the tribal areas in Pakistan, the local tribes have united in support of the insurgency. The  Taleban are re-arming and have learned tactics from Hezbullah, a rare example of  Sunni and Shi'a terrorists allying against the West. This also raises the question again of how far Iran is co-operating with Al-Qaeda in furtherance of  its goals:

Ram said Western intelligence agencies are aware that, for several months, advanced anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons and heavy duty, off road motorcycles have been pouring into the tribal areas. The motorcycles are considered ideal vehicles for moving men and supplies over the narrow mountain paths that lead to Kandahar.

Ram said Middle Eastern jihadi militants are teaching the Taliban new fighting techniques used by Hezbollah against Israel.

"The Hezbollah anti-tank or tank killer teams were very effective in their tactics. Those tactics have been transferred into the Afghan theatre of war," he said.

 
These developments would tend to undermine the argument that Operation Falcon's Summit is a military success. If the Taleban are keeping their powder dry across the border, NATO can do little more than deny the insurgents what territory and influence they have, blunting any Spring offensive. We will know by next April whether the International Crisis Group is correct.

Afghanistan: Operation Falcon's Summit

Strategypage reports that one of the unsung triumphs of the campaign in southern Afghanistan is the harrying of the Taliban by the special forces. They state that there was a ten to one ration between the deaths of the Pakistani Taliban for every Coalition soldier killed.

Now Operation Falcon's Summit is underway. Local Taliban commanders have moved towards a stronghold, anticipating renewed fighting. Some have already been killed in an airstrike. These initial moves are accompanied by more long-term measures designed to protect Pushtuns from the predations of the Taliban.

Playing what could be a vital role in Operation Baaz Tsuka is the newest, smallest and least well known of Afghan security forces, the fledgling Afghan National Auxiliary Police, or ANAP.

The brainchild of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, and thus grounded in hard-nosed local pragmatism, the ANAP is the honey in what NATO hopes is its trap -- a practical way of legitimizing and taking advantage of the violent Afghan culture, recently honed to a sharp edge in more than three decades of war, insurgency and occupation but centuries old for all that, of being armed to the teeth and protecting what's yours.

The ANAP, as Canadian Brigadier-General Tim Grant told reporters yesterday, is part of NATO's effort to persuade local elders to "take responsibility for their own security." Ideally, what these young men, armed as they likely would be in any case but trained to a veneer of professionalism by Canadian Military Police for two weeks, will do is help villagers give hard-line Taliban the boot and keep them at bay.

Meanwhile the latest shortage to hit the British Army is closer to home.  Defective ammo,  lack of body armour, and kilts.

Dig me a hole till it buries my head

It was not the act, but the smoke and the mirrors that caught Nixon. The same tendrils of obscurity and obfuscation have dogged the police investigation of No. 10. Documents and emails have not been sent as requested or have gone missing. These have become a sufficient pattern to warrant an investigation as to whether certain individuals have colluded to pervert the course of justice:

Downing Street aides and Labour officials involved in the cash-for-honours inquiry are being investigated on suspicion of perverting the course of justice, The Times has learnt.

If the investigation moves away from its original purpose to examine actions designed to prevent a police investigation, Labour will rue the day. Ever since they have entered office, they have acted as if they enjoyed Crown immunity, the grasping of power raising them above the reaches of the law. This can be seen in myriad decisions, where the goal uttered was reached for without cognizance of convention, check, statute, or sometimes, plain reality. Now they are mired in the sod:

A prosecution source said: “There is more than a suspicion that evidence has not been handed over, people have colluded and the police are not being helped.

“It has been noted that when the Watergate scandal forced President Nixon to resign, it was the cover-up, not the burglary, that brought him down. What these people should remember is that they are not dealing with a parliamentary inquiry; this is a criminal investigation and anyone failing to co-operate is participating in a criminal offence.”

This will take Labour's problems to a new level, dogged by corruption and sleaze, tarring the next administration with Blair's detritus.

The Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has advised detectives to look into suspected attempts to hamper the nine-month investigation. Some e-mails and documents have yet to be handed over to the police while others have apparently “disappeared”. Some individuals are suspected of colluding over evidence.

The Ashes Regained: 20??

England lost the Ashes after just three Tests. That must be one of the quickest and most galling defeats yet achieved by an England cricket team. Perhaps the bitter root of defeat is accentuated by my trip to the Antipodes in the next few days to witness the last two games, of what has so far been an appalling whitewash.

One must look on the bright side, but for selection and play, this has been a blast from the past, revealing problems that had been thought whipped. A question mark must hang over Flintoff's capabilities as captain: promoted too far, too fast.

Afghanistan: Operation Falcon Summit

A new offensive is now entering its first phase under the auspices of the ISAF. Operation Baaz Tsuka or Falcon Summit takes place in the same hinterland as Operation Medusa, which ended in September. This offensive is designed to 'smoke out' Taliban elements who have returned to the locality in partnership with the Afghan National Forces. Co-operation with the local elders has removed the element of surprise but the participation of Afghan forces (hopefully Pushtuns) will remove some of the xenophobic hostility that greets foreign forces.

ISAF members accept there was a failure to inoculate Panjwaii district from the Taliban after Operation Medusa ended on Sept. 17. Most blame this failure on a lack of Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police strength and presence.

Since then, both Afghan forces have undertaken extensive training and patrolling exercises with Canadian troops in Panjwaii. The goal is to "put an Afghan face" on coalition efforts to cleanse the region of Taliban, and to reassure farmers and villagers foreign troops will not be a permanent part of the landscape.

ISAF is determined to ensure that NATO gains are not dissipated by a lack of 'follow-up' from Afghan forces. That Operation Medusa was a failure demonstrates that the Afghanistan government is still unable to project security in this area without the aid of NATO. Pakistani connivance at Taliban insursions is an emerging threat: Pushtun nationalism, channelled through Afghanistan, has always been viewed as a threat by Pakistan. Expect no let-up in their support of the Taliban.

The Understanding Gap Between Mainstream and Online Life

My attention was drawn to this Panorama program about online poker.  The program confused online gambling and online poker, and generally provided a superficial analysis. 

There are so many issues with the program, that it is difficult to know where to start.  The program went like this:

• Prologue: People are making money online.
• Act 1: Reporter finds the only online poker pro dumb enough to work with him.  He's a 20 year-old welsh fast-food worker.
• Act 2: Online pro is dragged to Belfast to play poker with reporter's money..  Guy doubles up first day.  Reporter then gets greedy.  During this phase, the "pro" apparently doesn't win a single hand.  The is some fake angst at the fact that the money is being lost by someone else.
• Act 3: Cut to thief who stole £460k to fund gambling addiction.
• Act 4: Reporter decides to increase the stakes until 3-5 lost hands will bust him.  Standard practice is to play with less than 1/20 of your bankroll on a single table.
• Act 5: Reporter duly goes bust.  Cue more fake angst.

In the past couple of years, an online poker site (Party Gaming) has IPOed, entered the FTSE 100 index, then dropped out again.  The US has arguably broken WTO services rules against the interests of a UK company, yet this wasn't mentioned. 

At a time when online gambling is a significant growing industry, this show is a significant missed opportunity.  At every turn, the makers could have informed and analysed.  Instead, they resorted to cheap theatre.

I eagerly await the Panorama show that addresses any of the following points:

• Why putting all your bankroll on the table is foolish
• How poker and gambling theory have evolved.
• How the US gambling bill is draining liquidity from online poker
• How Party Gaming may be doomed.  (Rumour has it that Party's accounts don't specifically mention players' funds, so they may be using these funds as working capital.)
• The diverse ways that people are making money gambling or trading online.

It is not uncommon to hear that reporters are looking to contact online gamblers.  Normally, such reporters aren't trusted.  It may well be that the gap in understanding within the MSM means that they cannot be trusted.

Kandahar: The Siege of 2007

Syed Saleem Shahzad has a curious piece about meeting members of the Taliban in Kila-i-giz, a small village near a British base. The Taliban are confident that the current de jure ceasefire will end in the Spring of 2007 and that they will besiege the NATO forces in Kandahar.

"What will happen and what do they know?" I asked.

"They know that we will mobilize our strength and occupy the Herat-Kandahar highway and establish our pockets all over," said Qari.

"So that way you will isolate the Sangin district and the district of Gerishk - cut them off from the rest of the country?" I asked.

"Yes. And then we will not give them a chance to even find an escape route in their helicopters. We will hold parts of the Kandahar-Herat highway and our friends will hold other points. So Kandahar and other places will automatically come under siege and there will be little chance of reinforcements," Qari said, eating his final piece of bread.

The Taliban believe that they are still fighting the last war, and that their tried and tested tactics will defeat NATO, just as it defeated the Russians. Will NATO fight smarter? Yes, but only if the British are resupplied with decent equipment, not the life-threatening crap that has bloodied the hands of Blair.