From Roadmap to Cul-de-Sac

The period of reflection on the European Constitution continues. Yet, neither the European Commission nor the Council have offered any meaning ful reform of the document.  The  legal  process of  ratification continues and  the question of how to negotiate those Member States who have not signed up has not been discussed.

There may be moves afoot to adopt some of the goals as part of the integrationist agenda within Brussels, an interim measure favoured by the French and their acolyte, Belgium. They wish to pursue integration amongst an avant-garde, to avoid tumbling off the bicycle of integration. This has not prevented the cheerleaders of the Constitution, especially Germany, from preventing the discussion of alternative structures. The Constitution was designed as a roadmap and is now a political cul-de-sac. This is due to the obdurate support of those who have signed up to the process.

Now, the dregs of realism are beginning to shine through. Juncker, the Prime Minister of Luxembourg, does not expect to see a breakthrough in institutional reform before 2009 or 2010. The 'period of reflection' will become a moniker for a 'do-nothing' approach.

An end to the EU's institutional crisis is not yet in sight, Luxembourg's prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker has warned, dashing hopes by the European Commission and the German chancellor for an upcoming revival of the EU constitution.

The "reflection period" on the future of Europe - agreed by EU leaders last year after French and Dutch voters rejected the constitution – will last at least until 2009 or 2010, the Luxembourgish leader predicted.

This paralysis reflects the fatigue that has accompanied all things European, its waning popularity, and the unwillingness of any leader to invest political capital in further integration. Bound by the bureaucratic horizons of their committees and the necessity of acting in lockstep, all seem quite happy to hunker down in the present structures and gradually work through further integration, as appropriate.

For the short-term, the EU project edges forward,  becoming more protectionist and  illiberal as it reacts to the slow  erosion of economic competitiveness.  Will  the structures, as reinterpreted by the Treaty of Nice, bed down and maintain the slow reaction to particular economic and social crises?
The Member States and the Commission are happy with this  status  quo but all forget that  the EU  is vulnerable to a crisis in any single country. If one of the larger Member States  faces a crisis of savage proportion, they will take all steps necessary to resolve their  problems, including the repatriation of powers from the EU. As soon as one takes that step, confidence in the supranational structures may rapidly crumble, as the advantages of remaining in an unravelling single market are outweighed by the economic costs.

The demographic problems, the everrising tide of competition from Asia and the tensions between the liberals and the mercantilists within Europe favour such a crisis, with Italy, France or Britain as possible candidates.