The Bewilderness

Begs the question!

The Stop the War coalition refers to a counter-insurgency offensive against anti-coalition forces. Sami Ramadani provides an example with his arguments that the Samarra bombings were instigated by the United States forces to foment sectarian unrest:

But as live coverage of Wednesday's demonstrations on Iraqi and Arab satellite TV stations clearly showed, the popular mood has been anti-occupation rather than sectarian. Iraq is awash with rumours about the collusion of the occupation forces and their Iraqi clients with sectarian attacks and death squads: the US is widely seen as fostering sectarian division to prevent the emergence of a united national resistance. Evidence of their involvement in Wednesday's anti-Sunni reprisals was picked up in the Times, which reported that after an armed attack on the al-Quds Sunni mosque in Baghdad the gunmen climbed back into six cars and were ushered from the scene by cheering soldiers of the US-controlled Iraqi National Guard.

Now, such reportage begs the question of how far the US forces control the Iraqi National Guard.  One should treat the  picture of an  occupation versus anti-occupation forces with scepticism. A more valid question is how far does a 'dirty war' constitute our strategy in Iraq:

Of course, two eye witnesses should not be considered conclusive evidence the Pentagon puppet Iraqi National Guard is behind the mosque bombings in Samarra. However, when added to the wealth of evidence from various sources detailing the existence of a Anglo-American "counterinsurgency" program in Iraq (including the now largely forgotten and never referenced by the corporate media story of two British covert operatives caught red-handed in terrorist behavior last September) the incident should at least stir a modicum of suspicion.

Well, this is only one, and a *cough cough* partial interpretation to say the least. Begs the question, but no more than that....

How important is your safety?

The government provides free guidelines and advice which allows business to assess the risk of a terrorist attack. The website, "Continuity Central", released a publication today entitled "Protecting Against Terrorism" summarising guidelines for businesses. This was not a public relations exercise by our political masters but a common sense response to requests from those businesses that have thought about the possibility of a terrorist attack.

The Security Service, in partnership with Home Office and Cabinet Office, have updated existing protective security guidance for organisations with a duty of care for others. This guidance, entitled 'Protecting Against Terrorism' has been published in response to requests from businesses to have a hard copy version of the guidance on the website.

Yet, the majority of small businesses must be unaware that there are free guidelines of this nature. Has this government, renowned for its expertise in public relations, promoted a booklet that would save lives? Was this a press release that the mainstream media responsibly reported because they understood that smaller enterprises do not belong to organisations with the resources to monitor such subjects?

The release of relevant publications is a vital opportunity to raise awareness of the preventive actions that organisations and individuals can take to mitigate a terrorist attack. This press release sunk without trace on a day when the Home Office launched a campaign for reducing forced marriages amongst immigrant groups, announced new funding for racial equality and community cohesion and issued new regulations on the work of the Criminal Records Bureau. All admirable goals for some I am sure but I would argue that they are of less importance than raising security awareness amongst small businesses and the self-employed.

You may rest assured that New Labour has its priorities right: the politically correct client bank must come first.

Bearing the Strokes may become easier

Always good to report some excellent news even if there is some difficulty in understanding the mechanisms converted. Always on Technology Review:

Although victims of stroke and traumatic brain and spinal cord injuries sometimes recover through rehabilitation, they often have permanent disabilities, in part, because scar tissue and regulatory chemicals in the brain slow nerve growth, preventing nerve tissue from repairing itself. Now a treatment that has restored lost vision in lab animals appears to overcome these obstacles, allowing a mass of nerve cells to regrow after being cut.

Anything that cuts the possible of disablement, especially in the elderly, contributes to the development of health expectancy, and its extension.

"In the meantime all the forests burned down"

Not only is the European Union satisfied with signing up a communist dictatorship to its new space navigation system, Galileo, it has now cemented a co-operation agreement with Russia. This will increase ties between Galileo and Russia's incomplete equivalent, GLONASS. Co-operation in space is usually viewed as a benign activity, fostering 'soft power' relationships. The development of Galileo is viewed in a harsher light as the creation has been seen as a rival to the GPS satellite navigation system created by the United States. The potential military applications are noticeable, especially when they are available to countries that do not share a love of democracy. The European Union is noted for its lack of fussiness in partnerships.

The European Union is aware of its increasing dependence upon Russia as a source of energy. A new treaty is being negotiated for 2007, dealing with security and energy ties, replacing the co-operative agreement with the Soviet Union. The old ties are now obsolete.

"We might be actually acting side by side in far away places, like Sudan, under UN auspices," Russian ambassador to the EU, Vladimir Chizhov, said in an interview with EUobserver on Thursday (9 March).

"Whether one likes it or not, in the mid-term perspective, that is in the next 15 to 30 years, the percentage of EU demand covered by supplies from Russia will grow," he indicated.

Mr Chizhov dubbed the new legal pact a "Strategic Partnership Treaty (SPT)" envisaging a slim framework document backed up by action-oriented instruments.

"The issue at stake is not a new energy treaty...but a new treaty that would summarise Russia-EU relations and this can replace the existing Partnership and Cooperation Agreement [PCA]."

The laughable vision of Russian conscripts deployed alongside EU soldiers too scared to get their hands dirty in the hellholes of the world is fantastic. In reality, the Russians are no strangers to european bureaucracy, as this episode in Bosnia demonstrates:

EU-Russian crisis work has also been frustrated by Brussels red tape in the past. 

The Bosnian police agreement took one year to write and the last two months were spent in "endless discussions" on whether it should be in English only or English and Russian.

"Our partners on the EU side of the table said, since Russian is not an official language of the EU, you can't have it. This is stupid."

Russian helicopters were ready to take off in 24 hours to help France but it took seven days to get overflight clearance from EU transit states.

"In the meantime all the forests burned down," the ambassador indicated. "Today the EU lacks a coordinated system of civilian emergency response."

Europe is about to find that they need Russia more than Russia needs them. Tensions in the Near Abroad will soon ease, as the European Union gags the OSCE and allows its larger partners to place realpolitik above democracy. Moldova, Belarus and the Ukraine will find a cold response to their westward orientation: a final betrayal from the Cold War. Tell me again, how did the appeasers win?

The Anglosphere: Past Imperfect or Future Tense?

Longstanding blogger, Emmanuel Goldstein, now drifted away from the blogosphere completely as far as I know, viewed Jim Bennett's concept of the Anglosphere with isolationist hostility. As part of Airstrip One, my own view of the Anglosphere and its underlying conceptual foundation, the 'network commonwealth', was eventually one of interest, though leavened with scepticism that an analytical tool could provide political utility. When my fellow contributor, cuchulainn, raised the subject of the Anglosphere, it seemed time to take stock, especially with the advent of that shared symbolic enterprise, the Commonwealth Games.

Some years after the publication of the original concept of the Anglosphere leaves many readers with the distinct impression that Bennett has ploughed a lonely furrow, and that few commentators have engaged with the changes that his analysis was designed to explain. This may say more about the persistency of academic paradigms than the applicability of Bennett's ideas. After all, take-up may prove more influential if the foreseen changes come to pass, as the opportunities and developments arising from globalisation and the information revolution remodel foreign relations in surprising and unpredictable ways. To his merit, Bennett's work grappled with these changes  when other analysts maintained their traditional approaches.

The 'diplomatic revolutions' of 9/11 and 2003 have obscured these underlying developments. A militarily resurgent United States, trailing allies in its wake, went to war in Iraq. Although the result has been described as an 'Anglo-Saxon' war, the coalition appeared to be a reaffirmation of traditional alliances rather than the nascent strengthening of ties between cultural affiliates. More recent developments such as the warming relationship between the United States and India or the realistic leadership of Steve Harper, the Conservative leader in Canada, are all shifts within the existing structures of power politics. This does not provide any further evidence of a 'network commonwealth' though there is a natural predisposition for the United States to deal with a reforming India.

Since this idea deals with ties at many levels: cultural, social and economic, the key question is whether these links are strengthening and if these will prove sufficient to create beneficial political constituencies  that provide a positive reinforcement of the trend, leading to a virtuous circle. The jury is still out, although particular relationships such as India and the United States are probably benefiting from these connections.

My own view is that it is too early to tell still.  My worry is that the concept of the 'network commonwealth' Anglosphere is interpreted by many as a deterministic trend, an inevitable outcome of the communications revolution. This formed part of the blogging welcome for Australia and the United Kingdom during the Iraq war. Whilst shared commonalities are necessary preconditions for the Anglosphere as a political construct, I fear that this will never formally come to pass without accepting that contingency and constituency building will play a formal role.

Perhaps such bonds can only be formed or resurrected as part of a World crisis, which seems rather too high a price to pay for the formation of a new Grand Alliance.

The Abolition of Parliament Bill

It never takes too long for campaigners to set up a website providing all the information that you require to raise awareness and combat this perfidious Bill.

If this Bill passes, all that stands between us and an elected dictatorship is the restraint of our pols. God help us!

The 'Cameron Factor'

One of the strongest perceptions of David Cameron has been his fortuitous position as the supposed "heir" of  Tony Blair. Fresh-faced, safety  first, sofa  appearances: Cameron uses his PR expertise to  reposition the Tory party in the Centre and has adopted  Nulab  organisational skills to exert  a centralised  Stalinist control over the party.  There are two  complementary themes here, The first is a political  elite that views representation as the most important channel to power, repackaging themselves to be what people want to see and hear. Content and character are unwanted strangers. The second strand concerns political parties that are far more beholden to their members, as they have become far smaller organisations. With a more radical and more vocal membership, moves towards a greater say in some areas has been swiftly followed by centralised control from the leadership to ensure that the legislative body is always "on message". The Tories may actually prove more successful in acquiring Stalinist clones than the Labour movement.   

One of the strongest narratives in the election of Cameron was a sense of renewal. He could be described as a 'Prince over the water', returning from exile to lead the electorate to the promised uplands. Yet the parallels with Blair's own ascendancy are well plotted, with the symbolic appropriation of celebrities. The tacking away from the traditional themes of the Thatcheright and adoption of policies that safeguard state structures have been designed to promote the Tories as a political party that will secure the achievements of New Labour. This narrative was substantiated for many by the rise in the polls  after the election of Cameron.

We know that Cameron's popularity is derived from his representation as a young, family man without the blight of serving under Thatcher. Yet, this increase in popularity for the Tory party, is more complex than a 'Cameron factor'. Many voters have been disillusioned with New Labour and their disenchantment led to apathy rather than opposition. The economic security that Labour squandered and credit bubble founded upon rising asset prices provided insulation from their political disasters. These factors have faded away. The security of stagnation, poor public services  and higher taxation led many to look for alternatives. The election of Cameron was a signal for many voters that the Tories seemed to be serious contenders for government.

What is the lesson here for the Tories, if Cameron is the catalyst, but not the reason for the rise in popularity? They should not attach too much importance to the process of 'modernisation' championed by Cameron. Like all political developments, the message of Cameron as leader is contradictory and complex. The electorate responds well to figures that display the qualities Blair managed to champion, qualities which remain opaque to observers like myself, yet appeal to a vast portion of the electorate. These qualities do not require Blair's policies. Perhaps  voters now find the leader appealing and  are more willing to consider the alternatives of smaller government and staunch national security.

If so, Cameron needs to tread carefully. The electorate will not wish to elect a New labour clone when they have the real thing in power. They may respond to Blairite qualities but they understand that the Left is not Tory-lite. If Brown calls a snap election as leader before pushing up taxes even further, Cameron may have lost the ace of tax cuts, mind transfixed by the New Labour project, just as the electorate yearn for less government and fewer of the costs that go with it.

Cameron may be on the cusp but he must never forget the lesson: people never say they want less tax, but they welcome the prospect with open arms.

World Shortage of Digitries (sic)

A newish group called the Muslim Action Committee has sent a demand for surrender to all British MPs.

1. A proper and complete apology by the Danish Prime Minister, the editor of Jyllands-Posten paper and the all the cartoonists.

2. An undertaking that the paper will not print such depictions and stories again.

3. By the rule of civility in the ‘right to reply’ we demand an undertaking by the paper that one Hadith of Prophet Muhammad (peace and blessings be upon him) be printed every issue for the next 12 months on civility, as selected by the Muslim Action Committee.

4. The legal copyright of the cartoons to be handed over to the Muslims.

5. The proceeds  from the cartoons to be given to European children’s charities.

6.Danish PM and Jyllands-Posten to sign up to the Proclamation of Global Civility.

This group are distinguished by their technical incompetence and inability to spell.  All their web pages are titled "Untitled Document", for example.

But I find the following hilarious: this page contains the final line:

f you would like to view prominent and famous digitries who have signed this Proclamation click Here

It's hard to find a good digitry these days.

(Hat tip: Harry's Place)

Better Identities

The latest defeat for the government's ID card proposals in the House of Lords should not blind us to the possibilities of a free market in  identity management. Viable and more robust alternatives will emerge from proprietary or open-source providers, if the monopoly proposed by the government is abandoned. One of the first proposals for establishing an internet identity management system, that overlays current verification processes, is the Eclipse Foundation:

Recently, however, software engineers and policy makers have been designing a new layer of security for the Internet. The goal is to free up identity information from organizations and companies, and also allow individuals more control over who sees their personal information.

Last week, IBM and Novell announced they would supply programming code to an open-source software initiative -- a project that could become the framework for people to transfer personal information securely, from credit-card and social-security numbers to eBay ratings and instant messenging "buddy" lists.

The project, named Higgins, is managed by the Eclipse Foundation, an open-source community. In fact, it's the first identity management framework to use the open-source software model, in which anyone can contribute software code. Higgins aims to "provide a simple way for multiple identity management systems to interact," says Mike Milinkovich, executive director of the foundation. IBM is expected to roll out software that incorporates Higgins technology within the next year or so.

Given the advantages of a single standard in identity verification, would such models tend towards monopoly following first mover advantage, or would they allow a number of competing standards to circulate, filling various market niches. It is too early to tell, but could these  possibilities prove the primitive precursors of new curencies based upon identity and status?

2007 - Year of the Constitution

JURIST lays out the planned outline of the latest attempt to revive the European Constitution. In tandem with the actions of Chirac to publicise EU actions that demonstrate a defence against socialisation, the leaders of France and Germany wish to revise the first two chapters and submit these revised parts of the Constitution to referenda in France and the Netherlands.The third chapter would be ratified by the respective Parliaments of the two countries.

Christian Democratic politicians from Berlin, Paris and the European Parliament were holding confidential talks to restart talks on the failed attempt to ratify a constitution for the European Union, according to reports in Der Spiegel magazine.

The group includes German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Jacques Chirac, and other conservative EU leaders, the magazine reported.

This plan will be taken up by the German Presidency of the European Union in 2007. Just imagine the pressure on a British Prime Minister when twenty four have ratified and we have not. No doubt the Liberal Democrats and Europhiles will construct some face-saving routine that allows the politicians to avoid holding a referendum here.

Separate referenda for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: vote for the Constitution to save the Union?