The Bewilderness

Singularity Society

The Royal Society issued a report recently on overpopulation and resources. An unwelcome sequel to the Limits to Growth, the authors managed to confuse economics, ignore technology and subscribe to the anti-humanist authoritarianism of the green movement.

Every new mouth is a burden. Everny new mind is a curse. Extra people should be discouraged. And then we have the Singularity University:

"He [Peter Diamandis] talks about "three billion new minds coming online" in the next few years, Silicon Valley-speak for "being born". These minds are an opportunity, he insists, because "the rate of innovation is a function of the number of people actually communicating and this is growing explosively with the internet". 

Ironic that the article on the Singularity University appears in the Guardian. Not a newspaper renowned for its techno-progressivism. But progress is marching forward all the time: and it looks like the Greens are wrong every time. The tsunami of progress should overwhelm their Cnut like ways.

Perhaps the Singularity University could take over the Royal Society, since it appears to have taken on the role that the oldest scientific association has abandoned...

Speculation, Extrapolation but not science fiction

I have just checked 'Singularity', the Vingean concept, for the first time in some months on Google News. There is a flurry of articles, reviews and explanations: perhaps inspired by the next iteration of the Singularity University. In the time elapsed, the concept appears to have achieved a new level of scrutiny and debate. Perhaps I am wrong, but there are a number of writings to analyse.

Even the games are beginning to spin their rhetoric on the turn of a coin. Listen to the trailer for the new game: Deus Ex: Human Revolution. There is a clear statement that the game is not science fiction (by which they seem to mean science fantasy). The emphasis is on a gritty and realistic extrapolation of current trends to a near future where augmented cyborgs enter a kulturkampf with the unenhanced.

What the game's advertising symbolises is how embedded such concepts like enhancement have become  in the ordinary discourse of certain media, such as computer gaming. Indeed, the concept is taken for granted, and used as speculation, in opposition to science fiction. The designers think this probably will happen, rather than may happen.

This twist can indicate that the world we live in now resembles a science fiction novel. Not a new insight, but when the science fiction visions of two decades ago become the extrapolative speculations of today, we know that we are living through a fundamental and accelerating period of change.

Danger, difficulty and wonder: a commonplace future

Glenn Reynolds, of Instapundit fame, reviewed Michio Kaku's new book, "Physics of the Future", for the Wall Street Journal. Yet, is it wise to allow an optimistic review of an optimistic book? For Reynolds, with some personal touches, treats the book as a survey of what he believes possible. I could not find any phrase where Reynolds disagrees with the author.

This is not meant as a criticism of Reynold's review. His approach is to promote his enthusiasm and acceptance of Kaku's visions of the future, a goal that I share. But there are other views: opposed to such technological advances, or more attentive to the risks. Reynolds alludes to these with his quote from Vernor Vinge:

I am inclined to agree with Mr. Kaku's largely optimistic view of the future. But I am also reminded of science-fiction writer Vernor Vinge's warning about technology empowering individuals to the point that it could put "world-killer weapons in the hands of anyone having a bad hair day."

The message of what technology could potentially do for you is a strong advertisement for optimism about the future. Yet, at the same time, the future is in danger of becoming commonplace.

We all share that sense of wonder derived from science and science fiction, where we are imbued with the shock of the new. But as change as picked up: the next Ipad, the next smartphone, the newest drug becomes expected. I can not be sure, from Reynold's review, that Kaku's latest vision carries the wonders, the dangers and the difficulties of the future. Best to read it then!

Things get faster, faster

This is the year that the concept of the Singularity began to storm the mainstream. As the concept has been popularised by Ray Kurzweil through his books and documentary, it has acquired legs within the mainstream media. The reasons for this upsurge in interest are obscure, though some of the credit doubtless goes to those who have continued to promote the debate.

It is the concept of the Singularity that has proved more popular than transhumanism. Talk about a geek movement and people unfairly yawn; the arguments of a time when we could become better than we are (or toast!) have a Manichaean attraction.

Furthermore, popular culture has been preparing the way for this possibility of machine outstripping man: think "The Forbin Project", "The Day The Earth Stood Still" and "Terminator". Whatever the underlying sense of wonder for singularitarians, engendered by the eye-widening world where things get faster, faster; we have a generation that can imagine computers better than us. They may not know how we get there, but they are familiar with a destination.

The ideas are now spreading into nooks and crannies previously unfamiliar to us: including the Philippines.

The rate of change is certainly contributing to the instability that we see about us: political economies can now rise and fall within a matter of decades. Look at Brown's client economy in the UK and the current pain in its mild dismantling. God help those politicians when they find that entire model begins to collapse.

Can dentists survive the Singularity?

Did the Singularity begin on "Jeopardy"? This is part of John Rentoul's suite of questions to which the answer is "no". We could ask "will there be dentists after the Singularity?" Is it a question worth asking? Probably not! What is the answer? A vague "Unlikely!"

Call me crazy, but when we reach a point where the most trusted doctor you can turn to is a hard drive, and that hard drive can repair and update itself, I think we’ve hit The Singularity.

This is one of those difficult quotes that says too much and too little. The role of the computer is seen as a simple trade-off between sources of knowledge: profession swapped for a diagnostic database. An alternative could be: the Singularity has arrived when we become our own doctors.

Even here, we would still need an external agent to deal with mouths and surgery. Perhaps dentists will survive the Singularity?

Getting closer to the age of miracles

The usual hype accompanies the interesting study on the 'elixir of life', a combinations of amino acids that have reduced oxidative stress in mice and extended their lifespan. The supplements of enthusiasts have already been altered. The caveat is whether this effect will extend to the larger mammals.

And in other news, the first permanent artificial heart has been implanted in a dying Italian child.

Bar accidents, we are getting closer to the age of miracles.

Make my robot moral, Lord, but not for a while yet

Wendell Wallach's recent piece on converging technologies and the future was recently presented at the World Future Society. ZDNet blog has undertaken a succinct survey of his presentation, with the keynote slides. Apart from the joke about soap (only funny outside prison), Wallach zeroes in on the role that culture now performs in shaping humanity. It is a simple truism:

We now evolve culturally and are as much as product of our culture as our biology.

This statement disguises complex processes and links natural selection to cultural change, a thesis that has not been proven. Nor is it clear whether culture and biology are equally powerful in their shaping, or if one dominates the other.

Assumptions about the convergence of 'theories of cultural selection' and progress shape the arguments of Singularitarians and their 'friendly sceptics'. I count myself as one, though its deterministic teleology can constrain debate.

Wallach's talk concerned how we craft an ethical framework for these changes and why our current, fragmented debate has not fully engaged with the potential autonomy of the machine and the enhanced responsibility of the human. His talk clearly kicks this off and attacks one potential myth: that the enhanced moral autonomy of the tool diminishes the need for moral responsibility on the part of the owner or operator.

The Singularity as concept may fail Wallach's test to think "comprehensively" about the shift in technology and humanity's place within it. As the most developed game in town, Kurzweil is the one to listen to and react against, if we are to achieve a more diverse understanding of what may come.

"Sensitive Jobs": Iranian Mekquake plods forward...

Avoiding all of the hype over the new Singularity game on Google news, the concept of the Singularity continues to find new permutations. Iran likes to wrap itself in the flag. Reminiscent of other countries that felt behind the curve, Iran celebrated the 'development' of a sub-Asimo robot.

How many nuclear centrifuges does Iran have? That's academic. Always showing off its tech might, the Islamic republic now has a bipedal robot that can walk around like a person, albeit at sub-human speeds. It's the latest volley in the humanoid arms race pushing us all toward the Singularity. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad showed off the terrifying humanoid at an event over the weekend marking Iranian industrial prowess. A state-run newspaper report said the automaton is designed for work in "sensitive jobs" but did not elaborate.

The robot has no capabilities in sound or vision. Yet, it is presented as a working, useful model which can provide help in "sensitive" jobs, whatever they are. Mobile statues perhaps....

The desire to emulate and surpass the West pervades this faux morality tale. Catching up with native resources is not sufficient for the Iranian authorities. Ahmadinejad requires a symbol of success: one that is intrinsically useful, a hallmark of oppressive regimes that prize utility above research.

Cult of singularity

I was not the only one to find Horgan's simplicity and unwillingness to critically engage with the concept of the Singularity rather depressing. Aaron Saenz is also quick to take Horgan to task but does warn that Kurzweil's role as principal spokesman for the Singularity runs the risk of a misperception as a 'cult of personality'. That certainly makes it much easier to stifle debate under the general label of cult. Who would want to be grouped with the Raelians?

The other, more fatal message for Kurzweil, is one shared by a wider range of critics like Michael Anissimov: that he is overconfident and runs the risk of making predictions. It woudl be an absurd outcome for the Singularity if it was vulgarised to a series of predictions, equivalent to some 21st century Seventh Day Adventist sect.

Off beam

Kurzweil's new movie does appear to have brought out some detractors, who play the man, not the film. We can guess Alex Beam's sympathies with his praise for  Bill McKibben:

The only celebrity thinker who acquits himself with dignity is eco-pamphleteer Bill McKibben, who looks as if he has wandered into the wrong green room. McKibben expresses a healthy skepticism about Kurzweil’s finger-painted future.

But, it does seem inadequate to term a film 'narcissistic' if it includes a critical element. Narcissism requires a mirror, not peer review. So, off beam in his statement and reduced to accusing the film of name dropping:

What about “The Singularity Is Near?’’ The movie is codirected, written, and coproduced by Kurzweil, and features Kurzweil interacting with the Great Minds of the 1980s, such as Sherry Turkle, Mitch Kapor, Bill Joy, and Marvin Minsky, the latter actually a Great Mind of the 1960s and 1970s. Have you been wondering where Alan Dershowitz has been hiding? He plays a defense lawyer in the movie’s inane fictional subplot.

I suspect that this whole 'review' in the poorest sense of the word is off beam. There are better ways of telling us why this film may not be very good.