The Bewilderness

Left hand saved by the right hand in France

The financial crisis is spawning political surprises. The hard left did less well than expected in the first round of the French presidential campaign. The drift from communism to National Front was the clear winner, driving Marianne Le Pen to third place.

Unless Sarkozy can draw on the reservoir on far right voters (deemed very unlikely), Hollande and the Socialists will win the vote. The Left is saved by the Right. The Eurozone is tipping towards the Latins.

A strategy for growth in Greece: parachute in the tax inspectors

Next month, we will be able to read the results of a new strategy for growth in Greece. This is from the same set of countries that has decided to send a flood of experts to aid the Greek government. Would this be a charitable donation of professionals to plug the gap left by an unendng stream of migrants seeking better lives and lower taxes elsewhere? When one sees the rise in poverty and hardship, one sees the disconnect between the creditors and those suffering.

Europe is helping Greece out by sending tax collectors. This currently counts as the only growth industry in the entire country. If the bloodletting of recession is not sufficient, European vampires wish to siphon what demand is left by "identifying" tax evaders and seizing their assets. 

This is part of Greece's permanent subordination; from Member State to paralysis. More revolting is the lack of pride by the citizenry in their own country. Their abject servitude before unelected appointees who have effectively disenfranchised their voice and tax them without representation.

We see the limits of the model. Soon, Europe will have to narrow the choice of political parties, since Member States may vote in a way unhelpful to the Project. Thank God we are travelling towards the exit.

Bank bailout transacted through Greek front

The Telegraph caught up with Euractiv today, reporting that France and Germany would harmonise their corporate taxes on an intergovernmental basis. The pioneering duo hope to provide additional foundations for a Fiscal Union and prevent tax competition. I predict this is one wheeze that will survive a Hollande win, although he may wish to increase taxes against German opposition.

Still, the lunatics remain in charge of the asylum. A second Greek bail-out has been announced alongside some verbiage announcing the transformation of a basket case into a dynamic export driven economy. Potential strengths like tourism are ignored (since they would thrive in devaluation) and emphasis is laid on austerity and privatisation. You know, asset strippers.

Since the economy is now at crisis point, the paper is the final novel in this fantasy trilogy. Their medicine: cut wages, privatise the state and open Greece up to investment. How they will dispel the risk of default, depression and revolution is open to question. 

Such a programme can only be completed with victory for the political elite. Their support is shrivelling by the day. The collapse is priced in, now: duration till the event remains unknowable, but it can't be too long now. Elections in April.

The bandwagon rolls on: a killing joke

France and Germany have found that they were unable to obtain consensus for a 27 member approach to corporation tax. What we would call competition, they deride as dumping. Like Sarkozy in his magnanimous experiment on the Tobin tax, both countries have decided to bilaterally fix their corporation taxes as a step towards the mouthful: the Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base (also known as 'all your taxes are for Europe'). 

From the Brussels perspective, this is described as 'enhanced co-operation', a sign of where they would like it to be, not just a Franco-German initiative. And we will see how far this lasts...given the French elections coming up. On this point, they do wish to foist this on the whole Eurozone, removing one more method by which endebted countries may be able to compete. 

And on another point of lunacy: we have Desmond Tutu lobbying the European Union for charging Canada more, as oil from tar sands and other sources could be imported, lowering the price of fuel. Part of the evil that forces the poor to choose between heating and eating, killing pensioners for the supposed good of the planet. The heating in Brussels isn't turned down.

Witting Collusion to save the Greek client state

Where to start with the hellhole that Greece has become. Why is it a hellhole? Because its politicians have opted for a continuation of their membership in the Eurozone at the expense of their electorate. The political class from left to right have supported a technocratic executive, joining a coalition government to appear as if they were carrying out the measures required for the bail-out. None of these parties were strong enough to dismantle the clientelist insider model.

I am depressed that even, in the throes of depression, the Greek political classes remain insulated from radical change, as demanded by their victims. It is not in their interests to be voted out and lose their powerbase. Nor is it in the interests of those who have bailed them out: watch their money shrivel in the cold wind of righteous popular anger. Neither the Greek politicians nor their debtors have an interest in putting any plan to the Greek voters. Why would the kleptocrats desire an election when they can acquiesce and blame inevitable change on financial paratroopers from occupying forces.

So we have a series of mock battles on sovereignty: shifts from democracy to technocracy and finally, the potential surrender of fiscal sovereignty to external forces.  

Whatever paeans to nationalism we may see drop like swill from hogs, no politician in Europe wants to risk an election with a revolutionary outcome. 

Sovereignty (as the will of the people) will be the EU issue of 2012.

A Maudulent civil service

Francis Maude is on something; a reality altering substance, perhaps. He sees a small state already, with a civil service that runs like an efficient family firm. Remarkable that these changes must have passed us by. Tally ho! Look, there goes civil service reform, don't you know.

Or there's the reality: debt going up, delusional protestations of austerity; Leviathan that only crowds out 50% of the economy....

So how have they done this: cut consultants and temps. Well, that's a start. But Francis, this is not getting the best returns: for that, we would have to own you, have some stake in the family firm: such as shares. We don't and your abysmal leader is talking about price fixing. How many quangos have you shut?

I am tired of tax, of gimmicks, of lunatic policies and grandstanding "we care" publicity stunts. This civil service lost control of our borders a few months ago. So your joke isn't funny. When you get to 40% and tax freedom day is in May, I may start to take you seriously....

Rebelling against the 'Bruning pruning'

The failure of the troika (European Union Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund) to obtain agreement from the Greek political classes for further austerity measures was not an unpredictable outcome. The exasperation of the German government with obdurate Greek civil servants and politicians led to demands for an abrogation of their sovereignty last weekend. The proposal received a raspberry that echoed wider than the Aegean.

When we look back on the development of this crisis, Germany's ability to influence the policy of indebted countries may well have reached a peak in January. The demands for a Fiscal Union embedding balanced budgets and austerity are being eroded by the loss of competitiveness in the peripheral countries and the ever Greater Depression. Electorates will not welcome their living standards sacrificed upon the altar of austerity.

It is not easy to predict the denouement of this crisis, though politics has come centre stage. The first defeat of German influence was the redlines of sovereignty that they demanded last week. Without this control, the Fiscal Union is detached from reality: its only chance of success depends upon a shared perspective amongst all of the political elites that signed up to the treaty.

The treaty now faces a number of challenges before it is finally accepted: a French presidential election with a revisionist candidate from the Socialist party; demands for referenda across a number of countries; and, an increasing chorus of critics that blames Germany and the 'Bruning pruning' for the immolation of the Eurozone.

Since Greek political parties are not willing to accede to demands for cuts to their solidarity, a default appears to be on the cards. This is accentuated by German unwillingess to provide further funds, thank God!

If welfare states have to adjust to new measures under the cosh of debt and default, better that it be done now without the additional whimsy of zombie banks living off the ECB teat.

 

The parastatal charity: an example

The School Food Trust is a "national charity" and a "specialist food advisor" to the government. From its status as an organisation whose remit is decided by the Secretary of State for Education and enforces national standards in respect to children's nutrition. This is, presumably, a war on fat.

When one looks at their actual activity, one sees a cycle of dependence upon the state financed charity: plan meals, assure they meet the necessary standards, train the staff, assure they meet the necessary standards, who sets the standards, who trains the staff, etc. etc.  Looking at the income, the charity subsists on grants, lottery funding (another tax? ho ho ho) and the charges paid for training, products based on the charity's remit etc.

The detail of income is quite opaque and dificult to distinguish between state and non-state finance: but the charity does provide a good example of the parastatal organisation that would vanish if we were serious about cutting back the state.

Deborah Orr's neverendum story

Deborah Orr accuses the Prime Minister of "short-term populism" in his refence to the Scottish neverendum. A pithy line I rather liked and one which seems to have kicked off a debate. But then again Deborah Orr has never seen a Tory she didn't like. #

A wearisome tour of recent political history reveals some odd perspectives. All Prime Ministers go for wars as domestic policy is too distracting, and Libya's no fly zone is equated with the full scale invasion of Iraq. Blameron is damned but Brown is praised as the saviour, if only of banks.

Only when the global financial crisis struck did Brown step on to the international stage and become sure of himself (even if he didn't convince the electorate). Brown went so far, in what was surely a Freudian slip, as to declare that he had "saved the world". He hadn't. He'd just saved the Anglo-American banks.

With this bizarre retelling of recent events, I think that I shall take Orr's 'insights' on Prime Ministers, their motives and their actions, with the same rolled eyes as her recasting of electoral arithmetic giving the SNP a balance of power in Parliament (highly unlikely, that improbable Abyssinian emperor).

Tunisia must conjure its blogosphere

Is this an indication of the new Tunisia as a moderate Islamist is sworn into power? At the Douz Sahara festival, Tunisian bloggers and social networks were able to set up a workshop for discussing the protest movement and their role within it. Something must have changed, as bringing all these troublemakers together would have been a godsend for secret policemen in the old days. 

This was a clear landmark in promoting the expansion of a Tunisian blogosphere; alternative media are necessary to keep a check on their new politicians. The compliant media of the previous dictatorship will take a long time to unlearn the internal harpies of censorship and deference towards authority. 

The Tunisian government is dominated by the Islamist movement, Ennahda, and faces strong economic headwinds in the next few years. It is the worst time to seek growth when your neighbours across the sea are plummeting down a sinkhole of debt. 

But I can legitimately ask: is this the first time that an Arab country has more democratically elected members in government than a country in the European Union, that paragon of democratic values? Fingers to lips, ssshhhh, don't tell anyone.....