The Bewilderness

The drone revolution nobbles Nimrod

There are plenty of blogs that drone about the rise of UAVs and their impact upon defence forces. With straitened budgets and increased capabilities, Philip Hammond's announcement that Nimrods would not be replaced by manned aircraft was unsurprising. This has left a gap in Britain's ability to maintain submarine surveillance around our coasts in the short-term. Critics of the Nimrod programme's cancellation were quick to point this out (though they were quieter about the mishandling of the entire upgrade programme: another Ministry of Disaster special). 

Whilst Hammond clearly acknowledged the gap in capabilities, he anticipated a new generation of drones that would achieve more than NImrod at lower cost and less risk to the crew. No doubt further programmes will be cut as the drone revolution begins to take effect.

The thick red line

The BAE Systems- EADS merger always invited scepticism in its goals and impact. The complex slew of profit, politicians and national interest set a very high bar. Yet, gratifying to hear that a red line for Britain was executive control. 

Robots continue to colonise war

Britain is developing its own autonomous robotic systems for war: alongside another forty-six countries. Two unmanned aerial vehicles are utilised: the Mantis for surveillance and the Predator for missile attacks. In development are unmanned ground vehicles: Pointer (a tracked single robot), Raider (a reconfigurable vehicle) and Wraith (a stealth tank). The MOD Developments, Doctrines and Concepts Centre is examining the ethics of robots in warfare though the pressures of competition will no doubt overcome their squeamishness.

More detail is provided by an article in The Engineer. The focus on controls, leaving humans in the loop, remains operationally an ethically key. Moving from a single controlled vehicle to swarms of UAVs or UGVs means that the machines are operating with far more autonomy and the debate centres upon rules of engagement, target identification and, presumably, an 'off switch'. There isn't one.

When it comes to more complex missions, however, the concept of a robot running an artificial-intelligence system is,[Professor of robotics at the University of Sheffield, Noel] Sharkey thinks, unlikely. ’You need human reasoning behind it. You can’t put the Geneva Convention into a computer; it isn’t specified for a computer and it contains ambiguity and apparent contradictions that need human reasoning to make sense of. We have no idea how reasoning works or even where it comes from.’

Perhaps Sharkey is right and there is a role for human engagement due to the shortcomings of artificial intelligence. Yet, it was not so long ago, that the fantasies of Terminator remained on celluloid, not in the dreams of engineers. Yet, as defence budgets shrink, robots are cheaper than humans and never sleep.Their role will only increase.

 

Joint Security

The United States and the United Kingdom have used the opportunity of President Obama's visit to launch a new initiative in security co-operation: a National Security Board. It is not clear why the initiative has been stepped up. Perhaps it is due to Cameron's establishment of a National Security Council, aligning institutions with Washington's structure allowing direct co-ordination. Or perhaps, the divisions over Libya were due to tactical misunderstandings, not political differences.

Whatever the motive, it is doubtful that this new body will keep the strong differences between the two nations from occasionally surfacing. Nevertheless, an emphasis upon cybersecurity, suggests that Britain faces strong attacks from Russia and China in this field - just as much as the United States does. Will the rest of the Anglosphere observe, perhaps join?

The red poppy and the green harp

We are beginning to see some of the effects of the lingering recession and Irish debacle. In times of downturn, recruitment from Ireland to the British Army increases. It is a well-trodden path, with strong antecedents.

The numbers are insignificant. The Belfast Telegraph points out that at the height of the boom, ten soldiers from the Republic of Ireland joined the British Army. This has increased by an order of magnitude now. I suppose my surprise is that the numbers are still so low, though they are based upon addresses only. The sample is probably higher than this.

Whilst there are still protests amongst the die-hard nationalist community, others such as the SDLP member wearing a poppy start to realise that remembrance can form an act of historical commemoration and contemporary respect.

Whilst

 

Defence ducked

Was the leak of Liam Fox's letter a mere contrivance? Strange that the public receives muddied waters on expenditure cuts with benefits and defence the two zones of conflict. Did the papers report rearguard actions from civil service Taliban setting off improvided explosive leaks (IELs) to save their budgets, and not coincidentally, their positions.

Yet, when David Cameron spins that he is now in the driving seat on defence, we sit up and await his decisiveness. Renewal of Trident, perhaps? Two new aircraft carriers confirmed? No, the "wide ranging" interview of strong decisions fades away very rapidly:

disclosed that more Chinook helicopters would be made available for British troops in Afghanistan.

he pledged that Britain’s Armed Forces would be given “everything that they need” to fight the Taliban.

This is what Brown used to say. Are we facing a convergence in rhetoric? One government starved the armed forces out of neglect,the other by necessity. All both can fall back on is tired mantras about troop protection. 

The real issues on defence, strategic thought and withdrawal from Afghanistan remain unresolved.

Grow your own, no need to import from abroad

A new report from the Centre for Social Cohesion confirms that most Islamist terrorism in Britain is based on radicalised individuals from the United Kingdom. The report does not allow a dominant interpretation to emerge: over twenty years, the Islamist terrorists derive from all parts of the Muslim world, sourcing from East and North Africa or South Asia. The terrorists can be either unemployed and on benefits or university graduates. The complexity of recruitment and motivation are laid bare, denying that moronic connection of poverty and violence that some on the Left use to patronise nd justify evil.

The history of such terrorist activities also reveals that the state attack on civil liberties has had zero effect in detecting or preventing this problem..

Judges neuter the defence

The Human Rights Act was a dogs breakfast from beginning to end, as every decision of the European Court of Human Rights, no matter how contradictory, must be respected. Therefore, application of the Act to soldiers serving in action must be regarded as leaving Britain with grave restrictions on her defence. Commanders will be second-guessed by the courts.

Mrs Smith’s lawyer, Jocelyn Cockburn, a partner at Hodge Jones & Allen, said: “I don’t think a court would second guess in almost any circumstance what a commander decides to do in the heat of battle. The issues that could be affected are military planning and the putting in place of, and adhering to, systems to protect soldiers.”

The MoD would have a greater requirement to ensure troops are properly trained and equipped before deployment, she said.

Given this Act and the judges who opine, some courts would second guess in all circumstances and judicial decisions cannot legislate for lack of money or incompetence.

Another example of how much damage needs to be reversed

The grotesque endgame of New Labour

The Ministry of Defence has stopped British journalists from undertaking “embeds” in the armed forces during the period up to the General Election. Senior Officers have also been halted from making speeches during this period. The convention of curtailing relationships with the media during an electoral period, known as “purdah”, has not been extended to the armed forces before now.

Was the same convention enforced at the 2005 election? It does not appear so.

The government fears unpopularity for its treatment of the armed forces. The management of the news cycle is turning draconian:

“It’s a truth blackout. Nothing, especially the truth, is to stand in the way in Brown’s election. Our armed forces can fight and die, but not write or speak. Any critics of the Government are to be banned from having any contact with the press. This is the grotesque endgame of New Labour. They want to bury bad news and bury the truth.”

We have yet to see the grotesque endgame....

A plague on all at chilcot

To view Broon's testimony to the Chilcot Committee as a challenge to honesty falls into the battle of credibility that both the Prime Minister and the generals have used in their briefings, evidence and statements. Each side has tried to deflect blame on to each other, when it should be apportioned to all. This is not difficult.

The Ministry of Defence is notoriously incompetent in spending money and ordering equipment. The shortfalls in helicopters and armoured vehicles can be laid at the door of its procurement policy. The Treasury was rightly sceptical of certain claims emanating from such masters of special pleading. Yet this scepticism hardened into deafness, even when the critics were clearly those on the frontline, fighting a war without support from home.

Broon applied financial sanctions to the MoD to punish them for their ineptitude, even though the 'poor bloody infantry' were most likely to suffer from this constraint. Even then, it took years for the flaws in equipment to merit a response and money.

For any onlooker, Brown's refusal to bear any responsibility or share blame is evidence of his unfitness for office. That can be said of many to no avail and today, I say it of Brown. This has not prevented such candidates maintaining their power. It also does not mean that he feels genuine remorse for any soldiers who die on his watch. And that, extended further, means that he does not link his own actions with deaths in action. This is not vacuity. This is not cynical abandon. It is an unbalanced inability to thread the cause (Brown) and effect (MoD incompetence). He would gain my admiration of he had made a genuine effort to resolve the problems of the MoD. Instead, he allowed his contempt to shine through, appoint a part-time Minister in Des Browne and compounding the problems.