Despite the complex dance between the three major political parties in England, their narratives for this parliament have coalesced.
The Coalition of Tories and Liberal Democrats is committed to the programme of public-sector cuts and shift to surplus financing as demanded by the structural deficit. This is wrapped within a dash for public sector reform: seasoning the main reduction in government expenditure with radical changes that are hoped to bring long-term savings.
Labour has shifted little in its orbit around the public sector. Defending the client state and opposing cuts with a fantasy of deficit financing has proved a short-term temptation. Edward Miliband does not anticipate an early election and has instituted a policy review: one that may even bring him closer to the Coalition programme. By 2015, the economic emergency will have receded and Labour will hope to have recaptured the centre ground on eceonomic competency.
Yet, these strategies are ready-made for upset. We have seen one upset with the hung parliament in 2010. Is this supposed to herald a one-off upset or will the volatility of the political system lead to greater shifts in party power. One example could be the replacement of the Liberal Democrats as the third party by others, such as the Greens or UKIP. In predictable periods, the barriers to entry for new parties are almost insurmountable. In unpredictable periods, new parties may arise, as electorates shift in response to rapid economic and social change. This time qualifies.
As for external black swans that could submerge the current political strategies, the list of potentials is lenghthening. Socialist parties A and B will find their five year plans off-target.
