Avoid tory triumphalism

An unsurprising result in the local elections. I would have stayed up last night and watched the reults but the picture was clear. My major touchstones were how the British National Party fared and the regional spread of Tory votes.

The lack of comment on the BNP shows that this party is not yet challenging the political system. They have picked up wards in some areas, such as Rotherham. Even as the recipient of the protest vote in the Labour heartlands, they have not profited from the disaffection in Labour's electoral "tribe".

The news is more positive for David Cameron, as the Tories gain councils in the north and Wales. The local elections are being spun as his victory. They have gained Bury in Manchester, and are on course for 200 seats and 44% of the vote.

The most important result of the night came in Bury, in Greater Manchester, where the Tories scored a stunning victory to take control for the first time in 20 years. The win, along with five new Tory councillors in Sunderland, will allow Mr Cameron to claim that he has gained a proper foothold in the North for the first time since becoming leader.

In Wales, the Tories have made modest gains, though Labour have lost some of their heartland councils.

The Conservatives comfortably held their only Welsh council, Monmouthshire, and hoped to make gains in Vale of Glamorgan, although counting was late.

Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan said Tories were hoping to match gains made in England in Wales.

Progress for the Tories, a drubbing for Labour and a stubborn digging in from Gordon Brown. He will spin himself as the underdog, and Cameron as the victor in his 'relaunch'.