Syria's Summer War; Iran's Nuclear Winter

Last year, we were diverted from the main show in Iraq by the 'shooting war' in Lebanon, which Israel won from a military stance. Hezbollah does not shoot rockets now. Nevertheless, the political consequences were far greyer. The Arab countries perceived Israeli retaliation to be a sign of weakness rather then strength, since the outcome was not overwhelming, swift and complete. On the other hand, Israel's willingness to use UNIFIL as a filter, avoids troops on the ground entering the meatgrinder of southern Lebanon.

The destabilisation of Lebanon and the waxing of Syria's strength in the short-term has eroded any gains from the pro-Western coalition in the government. Syria continues to support both Hezbollah and Hamas with weaponry and a hinterland for their organisations. Emboldened, the country has also made further demands on the Golan Heights and started to amass forces on the border in a defensive formation.

[Lt-General] Ashkenazi said that Syria was continuing to upgrade its forces on its border with Israel, but that Israel had no information of a planned preemptive strike by Damascus. He reiterated the assessment that this buildup of forces was of a defensive nature

This has been accompanied by a number of threats from the Syrian Ba'athists to retake the Golan Heights by force. On April 16th, the Syrian Information Minister, Mohsen Bilal, threatened mukawama (resistance) - a term that can encompass terrorism or warfare. This enjoined Prime Minister Olmert to state publicly that he did not wish Syria to miscalculate their power and commence a conflict that they could lose.

Israel faces a potential war on three sides: north, south and east: against the Palestinians, the Shi'ite Hezbollah and the Syrians. It will be waged by rockets, terrorism and armed incursions. With the heavier firepower and the threat status, Israel cannot afford to lose, even though it will set back bankrupt peace proposals. Many have interpreted the US build-up in the Gulf as a staging post for an attack on Iran but the primary role could be deterrence in the event of an Israeli-Syrian war. Containment instead of aggression is an appropriate stance, if Iran is to be prevented from taking strong steps to defend its ally. The risks of this strategy is that low-level containment can soon stray into a hot war, with British soldiers in Basra caught in the middle.

Syria's summer wars could result in Iran's nuclear winter.

Comments

[idiotas]

you guys are stupid , any kind of nuclear srike anywhere inthe middle easr in this day and age can set of a series of events that would probably lead to the destruction of israel, and syria, and lebanon, and usa russia