The Bewilderness

Old battles and new opportunities

There is plenty of ammunition surrounding the second reading of the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill: a new study is published on, some might say, a timely basis, concluding that babies born prematurely between 20 and 24 weeks do not have a greater chance of survival despite technological progress. There are quite a few variables to take into account with such studies: the level of facilities, the causal factors underlying such births, etc. Not sure if this deserves the article that the Grauniad provides on the eve of a vote.

When the attitudes of MPs are examined, they tend to remain confused and undetermined. None have been vulnerable to the lobbying of various groups, and, apart from pro-life campaigning, there are no obvious faultlines:

The Guardian's survey suggests that MPs will not vote along party lines or in "pro-science" or "anti-science" camps. Many MPs said they would support one or two of the aspects of the bill on which they have a free vote, but not all of them.

Most of the contentious issues will be supported: saviour siblings, lesbian access to IVF and  animal -human hybrids. These positive outcomes attest to the diminution  of the 'yuck factor'  and a pervading yardstick of utility in assessing the advantages or disadvantages of these developments. 

The pro-life lobby has been most active in attempting to reduce the abortion limit from 24 to 20 weeks and confirming the need to have a father during IVF, a process that will discriminate against lesbians and single women. Ian Duncan Smith's invocation of social breakdown does not gel with the vision of two women poring over a catalogue. The conflation of social and biological is designed as an easy hit, denying certain people the right to have a child so that he can make a political point. Shameful.

Duncan Smith has recently spoken out on the issue of the importance of fatherhood and attacked the new bill for 'hammering a nail into the coffin of the traditional family'. Without fathers, boys join gangs and teenage girls become pregnant, he said.

But that claim was rejected by Gamble: 'This has nothing to do with the fertilisation bill. Most of the children he is referring are not the products of IVF. This is a simple attempt to discriminate against single women and lesbians.'

To sum up, the bill has renewed old battles. We do not see differentiation in terms of principle on the center ground although the efforts of pro-life activists obscure deeper faultlines. Given the choice between the alleviation of suffering and the strange sympathies of a small minority, MPs will opt for the compromise by which this muddling policy has achieved its notable successes. If the Pope calls the result evil, then we know that the right decision was taken.

No revengers' tragedy

As a co-ordinated attack when Brown was facing his lowest ebb reminded us of Blairite ruthlessness, now exercised in revenge attacks.

The Treasury has launched a review of government waste, which it is hoped will   identify savings of more than £7 billion to be used to help hard-pressed   families.

However, there are concerns that these announcements may be overshadowed by   the stream of damaging disclosures about Mr Brown from former colleagues.

Senior Labour figures have cast aspersions on his character and personality   over the past few days. In addition, polls showed on Sunday that David   Cameron is now rated better than Mr Brown on every key leadership quality.

The triple assault of John Prescott, Cherie Blair and Lord Levy, alongside countless briefings, was designed to kill off any chance of recovery. The Blairites understand that Brown will not win the General election and are briefing to bring that event forward as quickly as possible. The longer Brown stays, the worse for Labour.

All day haiku

I decided to log on to Twitter, the new  package that allows you to microblog all day long.  Is this another vehicle for inane drivel or are we sighting the first  instances of all day online diaries: the fusion of public and personal in a vanguard commentariat.

The website is easy to log on to and register. Once signed in, it is a matter of clicks to assign an update to my weblog, so that a rolling bar will show my twitter alongside my more "substantial" entries.

The whole point of the program is that you are not updating a diary, but that the entries form part of a wider social networking circle. When that does not exist, due to that lack of twits (twitterers?) amongst your friends, and archaic work conditions, then the alternative is the lifelog, of which this is a potential iteration. 

Even if the entries are ephemera, they will become the repository of wit, observation and future Dr. Johnsons amongst the small horizons of these in-crowds. Twitter strengthens the bonds of the social network and ensures that falling out will be explosive and divisive when it occurs.

Maybe I shall stick to formless haiku.

Armed farces

Is there a mismatch between the actions of the British Army and the perceptions pervading the wars on the Home Front? Not one politician, commentator or army officer is willing to entertain some necessary truths?

But the British experiences both there and in Iraq have been utterly demoralising. The British army has been defeated in Basra. It can no longer take on the Mahdi militia in the city. Indeed, its

rule extends solely to the perimeter of the single air-base from which one day soon it will make its ignominious, Saigon-style vertical exit, to be replaced by the US Marine Corps.

The situation in Basra is compared to the defeat in Tobruk. An overstretched, demoralised army has been betrayed by a government that deferred reform of the armed forces in favour of pork, that cut cash to the infantry when all reserves were trimmed and that took on new commitments without extra money or soldiers.

Whilst debate has concentrated upon the consequences of neglect for the deaths of individual soldiers and the undermining of the re-invented 'military covenant', the wider implications of these defeats for Britain's standing in the world remains unremarked.

In other words, the situation is critical -- but you'd never know it from politicians, military leaders or the media. You'd never gather from the BBC or ITN that in Basra, the British face their biggest military humiliation since Tobruk. "The difference is, we fought at Tobruk," one British officer observed dryly. There is actually one other difference. Rommel's men were civilised.

Britain's standing in the world has been severely reduced by this war. Our usefulness to the United States is diminished as the Pentagon realises that allies without sufficient infantry create burdens and do not alleviate them (see Britain in Basra). An ungentle reminder that the primary purpose of our armed forces is to defend Britain, not as a shieldmaiden for NATO.

The major lesson from this debacle is the need for more infantry and less toys. If we had more boots on the ground, we would have had a better chance of holding Basra and controlling the Helmand warzone. If four years too late, our experiences confound the unwitting followers of Rumsfeld's expeditionary lite in the MOD.

Brown's bubble lets off wind 2

Further news of the impact of the "credit crunch" in the economic sectors most immediately affected. This is an important caveat, as there is no sign of estate agencies closing down on Epsom High Street or building wok slowing down in the more profitable sector of flats near the town centre.

Debtwire, an organisation that monitors the health of companies, said the   number of estate agency branches had fallen from about 13,000 at the start   of the year to about 12,000. The rate of closures is accelerating and   presently stands at 150 a week.

Sources in the field said that with each branch employing an average of four   people, the number of job losses was about 4,000.

There is some discussion of recovery in the media, the first time that a panda has looked for green shoots before the drought. Avoiding the adjustment is not likely to work: its depth and length are unknown. In geometrickal terms, this potential rescission has one side seen, the start, with lines projecting over time t, unknown. A new forecast has commenttaors coining the term "post credit crunch recovery" though PCCR syndrome could be derailed by oil prices. The vulnerability of the economy has left us open to the 1970s achilles heel, oil prices:

Hetal Mehta, of the Item Club, said: "If [the oil price] hits $200 per barrel, as one Opec minister recently predicted, then frankly all bets may well be off."

In those circumstances, she said, Britain could suffer a high street recession next year, with consumer spending shrinking by 0.1pc.

Such an increase would mean the overall economy would grow by a mere 0.9pc in 2009. The club said inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, would more than double to 5.9pc. The CPI is currently at 2.5pc - above the Bank of England's 2pc target.

Ms Mehta added: "With oil permanently at $200 the Governor of the Bank of England would be suffering from writers' cramp with the number of letters he would have to write to the Chancellor explaining why the UK economy had breached the target."

All bets were off when the credit crunch began.

Brown's bubble lets off wind

The large-scale effects of the "credit crunch" continue to drop into the wider market. In March, lending by building societies dropped by 68% on an annual comparison. This compares with a general drop of 40% in the overall mortgage market. Mortgage providers are no longer able to raise capital in the money markets and are attempting to stay at the bottom of 'Best Buy' tables.

Mortgage lending by the UK's building societies has slumped by more than £1bn, according to new home-loans data. Building societies advanced net loans of just £580m in March, down from £1.8bn in the same month last year.

The 68% decline means that building societies are scaling back lending as a result of the credit crunch even more severely than major mortgage bank rivals, such as Halifax and Cheltenham & Gloucester.

Societies are now lending to one in 10 would-be homeowners, compared with a traditional level of almost one in five.

Bank of England data shows that the market for home loans shrank by more than 40% in March compared with the same month last year. But it also shows building societies reducing their share of net lending, which includes customers repaying their mortgages, at a faster rate than the overall market.

The number of companies in liquidation is up by 54% in the first quarter, as entrepreneurs are unable to roll over their loans or raise more capital. There are now indications that cost control measures to cut spending whilst retaining staff have almost run their course. If that is so, expect large-scale redundancies.

Labour bloodied and browned

Brown is in pickles. His trip to the studios, ripping off Blair's "feel my pain" tour, has proved the start of dissent and sedition. Labour MPs in marginal seats must have witnessed the bizarre faux toupee, the distance between Brown's utterances and reality; the sheer inability of the Prime Minister to grasp their fear or take steps to avoid further meltdown.

Richard Littlejohn on "Question Time" said all that most people wanted to hear: give us a break. Instead, the only move to alleviate the plight of workers feeling the pinch is a promise not to implement the bin tax (a sin tax to encourage recycling):

"The real me is someone who understands at root all the challenges that   ordinary families face," he said.

"Pay-as-you-throw" schemes, due to be tested later this year, could   see families charged £50 a year for rubbish disposal, on top of council tax.   Hilary Benn, the Environment Secretary, believes it will encourage recycling.

Mr Brown also hinted yesterday at another populist move – scrapping a 2p rise   in fuel duty in the autumn. However, aides later insisted that the final   decision was months away.

Here is the summation of Brown's failure. When your taxes are lowering your income, you will blame the government. Promising not to introduce more taxes is a populist move for Brown; it will not  garner him support as the damage is done. He has taken away with his left hand and passed over some tax credit forms with his right.

With a raft of new obstacles providing the potential for further damage, Brown will struggle to retain any authority in his party. He is now at the mercy of events and the Left. The socialists smell blood, and they will argue for radical measures which will worsen economy and state.

Avoid tory triumphalism

An unsurprising result in the local elections. I would have stayed up last night and watched the reults but the picture was clear. My major touchstones were how the British National Party fared and the regional spread of Tory votes.

The lack of comment on the BNP shows that this party is not yet challenging the political system. They have picked up wards in some areas, such as Rotherham. Even as the recipient of the protest vote in the Labour heartlands, they have not profited from the disaffection in Labour's electoral "tribe".

The news is more positive for David Cameron, as the Tories gain councils in the north and Wales. The local elections are being spun as his victory. They have gained Bury in Manchester, and are on course for 200 seats and 44% of the vote.

The most important result of the night came in Bury, in Greater Manchester, where the Tories scored a stunning victory to take control for the first time in 20 years. The win, along with five new Tory councillors in Sunderland, will allow Mr Cameron to claim that he has gained a proper foothold in the North for the first time since becoming leader.

In Wales, the Tories have made modest gains, though Labour have lost some of their heartland councils.

The Conservatives comfortably held their only Welsh council, Monmouthshire, and hoped to make gains in Vale of Glamorgan, although counting was late.

Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan said Tories were hoping to match gains made in England in Wales.

Progress for the Tories, a drubbing for Labour and a stubborn digging in from Gordon Brown. He will spin himself as the underdog, and Cameron as the victor in his 'relaunch'. 

Gloucester's roman plague pit

Best practice in announcing discoveries has been suitably followed with an archaeological dig at Gloucester. A mass burial of entangled bones was found in 2004 and is thought to constitute a mass burial site caused by plague. The Antonine plague is dated to the second century AD.

It is believed the bodies were victims of the Antonine Plague, which tore   through Europe in the second century.

Archaeologists spent a painstaking 18 months analysing the bones, which were   dumped about a century before the Romans quit Britain.

Britannia left the Roman empire early in the fifth century. Either they were dumped a century after they died or someone is wrong. Lack of trauma promotes the plague theory:

The report, ‘Life and Death in a Roman City’, puts forward the theory that the cause of death may have been the Antonine plague, an outbreak perhaps of smallpox that swept across the Roman Empire between AD 165 and 189.

Plague, which kills quickly, tends not to leave marks on bone and therefore it is not surprising that evidence for disease is lacking on these skeletons. It is hoped that future tests on the bones for DNA will confirm this.

This was a severe plague that killed five million people and ravaged the Roman Empire, identified as potentially smallpox or measles. The plague site was a colonia and the arte of death was high enough to merit a plague pit. No doubt there are other pits in coloniae across the country that have not been discovered.

Embed

John D. McHugh of the Guardian embeds with the US Army, and provides a reasoned description of his expedition. This is a more sober affair and far removed from the dilettantes of CiF. Note how the embedding agreement is a conscious negotiation between military fairness and conscious scepticism, as it should be.

Before I can get the ID, I have to sign the embedding agreement. This sets out the parameters of what I can and cannot do during my time with the army. Despite accusations embeds are controlled and manipulated, the agreement is not the draconian affair often cited by those opposed to the whole process. There are obvious restrictions any army must put in place if it is to balance a free press with operational security. I will often be told of impending operations, including troop numbers, deployment, timing, etc. If I published these details in advance the plans would be useless.

There are other rules, but I would probably breach OpSec (operational security) just by talking about them. There are one or two I do object to, because I believe they are politically motivated, not militarily, but I have found ways to wriggle around them before. I will again.

What I am trying to explain is this: I have never been stopped by US forces from photographing or filming anything I have seen; I have never been stopped from seeing events unfold. In fact, once I was travelling with a US lieutenant colonel to the mountains of Paktia. I asked him if there was anyone I couldn't photograph, because of the ban on images of special forces or their equipment. Instead he said he wanted to be told if anyone refused to be photographed. "That means they are up to something they shouldn't be," he said 

Still, the discourse is familiar, as some of the readers will think that the US is entirely evil:

The phrase hearts and minds has been much sullied. But the concept is sound, and I believe that these medical services do more than anything else to convince the ordinary Afghan that the US is not entirely evil.